Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Discussions at the White House on Monday regarding a potential bilateral meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were met with a cautious and non-committal response from the Kremlin. While the idea of raising the level of representatives for talks was acknowledged by Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov, Russian officials have indicated a significant lack of readiness for a direct meeting between the two leaders, citing the need for extensive preparation and specific preconditions.
Kremlin’s Stance on High-Level Talks
Following President Donald Trump’s call with President Putin, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov briefed reporters, stating that “the idea was discussed that it would be appropriate to study the opportunity of raising the level of representatives of the Russian and Ukrainian sides.” He made no specific mention of a leader-level meeting.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later adopted a more conciliatory tone, insisting, “We do not refuse any forms of work – neither bilateral nor trilateral.” However, he stressed that “any contacts involving top officials must be prepared with the utmost care,” which is interpreted as an indication that Russia is not yet ready for such a high-level encounter.
Underlying Reasons for Reluctance
Views on Ukrainian Sovereignty
The current conflict began with President Putin’s unilateral recognition of parts of Ukrainian territory, the self-styled Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, as independent. He has consistently argued that Ukraine is “an inalienable part of (Russia’s) own history, culture and spiritual space,” viewing its separation from Russia as a historical error.
According to Orysia Lutsevich, director of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, a meeting between President Putin and President Zelensky would compel Putin “to accept the failure of sitting down with a president he considers a joke from a country that doesn’t exist.”
Domestic Narrative Challenges
Lutsevich further suggested that such a meeting would represent a significant shift in tone, difficult to justify to the Russian populace. She noted that Russian state television has extensively portrayed President Zelensky as a “Nazi” and Ukraine as a “puppet state of the West,” consistently questioning his legitimacy.
The Kremlin frequently challenges the Ukrainian leader’s legitimacy, focusing on the postponement of elections in Ukraine under martial law. Russian officials often refer to President Zelensky as “the Kyiv regime” rather than by name, and a recent Russian “peace” memorandum requires Ukraine to hold elections before any final peace treaty is signed.
Strategic Considerations and Prerequisites
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that President Putin does not view a meeting with President Zelensky as critical, seeing the war as primarily a confrontation with the West rather than Ukraine. However, she suggests he might consider a meeting if he believed it would be successful.
Stanovaya indicated that for a meeting to occur, “the key demands must be on the table and Zelensky must be ok to talk about it.” These demands reportedly include Ukraine ceding control of territories it still holds, which President Zelensky has currently ruled out.
Role of President Trump and U.S. Influence
President Putin, according to Stanovaya, views President Trump as a crucial factor in potentially altering Ukraine’s stance. Trump is perceived as an “enabler of (the) Russian vision of the settlement,” with the expectation that the United States would pressure Kyiv to be more flexible and open to Russian demands.
President Trump initially posted on Truth Social that he “began the arrangements for a meeting … between President Putin and President Zelensky.” However, by Tuesday morning, he acknowledged on Fox News that the two leaders “are the ones that have to call the shots,” adding, “We’re, we’re 7,000 miles away.”
Stanovaya suggested that Russia might seek to maintain U.S. engagement by proposing a new round of Istanbul talks with a higher-level delegation, possibly including Ushakov and Lavrov, to avoid an “ambush” of direct leader-to-leader talks where Russian demands might be rejected.
Outlook on Future Engagement
At this juncture, President Putin appears to have little incentive to concede. He has made no concessions but has seen previous efforts yield significant outcomes, such as a summit in Alaska, the removal of a demand by President Trump for a ceasefire before peace talks, and the erosion of past sanctions ultimatums.
After a slight decrease in nightly drone attacks on Ukrainian cities in August, Russia intensified these assaults on Monday night, launching 270 drones and 10 missiles. Should President Trump’s pressure on President Zelensky fail to produce the outcomes Moscow seeks, military force remains a primary recourse for Russia.
In conclusion, the Kremlin’s reluctance to facilitate a direct meeting between President Putin and President Zelensky stems from a complex interplay of strategic objectives, a deeply ingrained domestic narrative, and a perceived lack of necessary preconditions from the Ukrainian side. The current power dynamics and Russia’s continued military actions suggest that a high-level summit remains unlikely without significant shifts in the negotiating landscape.
