Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s recent price retreat, which has seen concerns emerge over a potential market peak for 2025, is being widely interpreted by analysts as a healthy correction rather than a definitive top. Despite a pullback from record highs, on-chain data and technical indicators suggest the cryptocurrency has more room to grow, with some analysts maintaining a target of $150,000.
Indicators Signal Further Upside
Analyst Merlijn The Trader dismisses the notion of a “$124K top” as mere “noise.” According to a recent post, none of Bitcoin’s 30 widely monitored peak indicators have yet flashed red, contrasting with historical cycles where multiple “overheating” signals preceded price peaks.
For instance, the Puell Multiple, which tracks miner revenue, currently sits at 1.39, significantly below the 2.2 “danger zone” observed before previous market tops. Similarly, the MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s price to its capital inflows, remains in neutral territory, not the extreme levels seen during prior market highs.
On-Chain Data Reflects Healthy Correction
Supporting the bullish outlook, on-chain data indicates a classic capitulation phase is underway. Analyst CrazzyBlockk noted that newer Bitcoin investors, those holding for less than a month, are experiencing average unrealized losses of approximately -3.50% and are currently selling their holdings.
Conversely, the broader Short-Term Holder (STH) cohort, comprising investors who have held Bitcoin for one to six months, maintains an aggregate unrealized gain of +4.50%, suggesting resilience among more established short-term holders.
Leveraged Longs Liquidated
On-chain analyst Amr Taha further argued for an impending recovery, highlighting the recent liquidation of $70 million in leveraged long positions. This occurred after Bitcoin’s price dipped below $111,000 on Binance, effectively removing overleveraged buyers from the market and resetting open interest.
Taha stated that this flush makes the market “structurally healthier.” The next significant cluster of liquidity is identified around $117,000–$118,000, which could act as a price magnet if Bitcoin’s recovery gains momentum. Below current levels, support appears limited until approximately $105,000.
Technical Analysis Points to Bull Market Correction
From a weekly chart perspective, Bitcoin’s recent 12% decline appears more akin to a typical bull market correction than a definitive market top. The price has held above the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $108,000, a level that has historically served as dynamic support throughout the current rally.
A successful rebound from the 20-week EMA could propel Bitcoin back towards challenging its all-time high above $125,500, potentially opening the door for a broader rally towards the $150,000 target by the end of 2025. However, a breakdown below the 20-week EMA could lead to a deeper correction towards the 50-week EMA, currently around $95,300, a level that has historically marked local bottoms during previous bull market pullbacks.
In summary, while Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback, a consensus among analysts and on-chain indicators suggests that the market has not yet peaked. The recent correction is largely viewed as a necessary deleveraging event, potentially paving the way for further price appreciation towards ambitious targets like $150,000, provided key support levels hold.
