Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin’s current bull market faces a critical juncture, with popular trader Roman asserting that its continuation hinges on the cryptocurrency maintaining the psychologically significant $100,000 support level. This comes after Bitcoin experienced a dip of up to 15% from its recent all-time highs above $125,000, leading to a notable shift in market sentiment and prompting traders to re-evaluate potential price trajectories.
Key Support Level Under Threat
Roman, a prominent trader, shared on X (formerly Twitter) that losing a six-figure price would signify the end of the current bull cycle. He specifically highlighted the loss of the uptrend and the $112,000 support level, pinpointing the $98,000-$100,000 range as the crucial area to watch. A failure to hold this zone, according to Roman, would officially confirm the bull run’s conclusion.
Technical Indicators Show Mixed Signals
High-timeframe analysis, referencing previous posts from August, suggests signs of exhaustion in Bitcoin, including low trading volume at peak prices and a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). However, on shorter four-hour timeframes, a bullish divergence on the RSI is beginning to emerge, often acting as a precursor to an impending uptrend, a phenomenon confirmed by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView at the time of writing.
Traders Eye $100K as Crucial Zone
Despite the prevailing caution, some market participants remain optimistic about a potential broader crypto market rebound. Trader ZYN suggested that if the $100,000 level holds, a new all-time high could be achieved within the next four to six weeks. Other traders view the $100,000 mark not as a trigger for reducing exposure, but rather as an opportune entry zone for accumulation.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin is not currently in a short-term uptrend, targeting the $102,000-$104,000 area for support. Despite this, he maintains that the current period represents an optimal time to accumulate positions.
August Performance Context
At the time of writing, BTC/USD was down approximately 6.5% for the month of August. However, this performance still outpaced Bitcoin’s August returns over the previous four years, according to data compiled by CoinGlass.
The coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin, with the $100,000 level acting as a linchpin for market sentiment and the potential continuation of its current bull cycle, as traders closely monitor technical indicators and price action.
