Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Gulf Arab states are actively consulting on a collective regional response following an Israeli strike targeting Hamas political leadership in Doha this week. The incident, which comes after an earlier Iranian attack on a US airbase in Qatar in June, has reportedly shattered the region’s sense of security. This has prompted calls for unity and deterrence amidst concerns that the ongoing Gaza conflict is escalating closer to their borders.
Regional Consultations and Immediate Reactions
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has vowed a “collective” regional response to the Israeli strike. He stated on Wednesday that discussions are currently “under consultation and discussion” with other partners, with a decision anticipated at an Arab and Islamic summit in Doha this weekend.
The United Arab Emirates, which maintains close ties with Israel, demonstrated a visible and immediate reaction. UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan arrived in Doha with a large delegation less than 24 hours after the attack, making it his first stop on a Gulf tour that also included Bahrain and Oman to coordinate a unified response. On Friday, the UAE summoned an Israeli diplomat to formally denounce what it described as Israel’s “blatant and cowardly” attack.
Strategic Options and Constraints
Regional analysts consulted by CNN suggest that Gulf Arab states are likely weighing options that could demonstrate regional unity and deter further Israeli strikes. However, these states may be constrained by a limited number of viable choices. Bader Al-Saif, an assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, emphasized the urgency, stating, “We need to take a stand now because if (we) do not, it will be other Gulf capitals next.”
Diplomatic and Legal Avenues
One potential option for the UAE, according to analysts, could involve downgrading diplomatic relations with Israel or decreasing its involvement in the Abraham Accords. These normalization agreements between Israel and three Arab states were a significant foreign policy achievement for President Trump during his first term. Even prior to the Doha strike, the UAE had signaled discontent, with senior official Lana Nusseibeh warning that reported Israeli plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank would be a “red line” that would “betray the very spirit of the Abraham Accords.”
Qatar’s prime minister indicated that part of Doha’s response would be in the legal arena, including through international law. The country successfully lobbied for a unanimous statement at the UN Security Council condemning the Israeli attack. Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, noted that Gulf states have not historically played a significant role in international court proceedings against Israel, a stance that could now change. “Gulf states could collectively decide to join those cases,” he suggested.
Another strategic consideration, according to analysts, is for Qatar to potentially withdraw from its established role as a key mediator between the US and some of its adversaries.
Defense and Security Realignments
Despite past internal disagreements, Gulf states are bound by mutual defense treaties. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Center, suggested that Gulf Arab countries could activate and expand the “Peninsula Shield Force,” a 1980s-era military pact designed to deter attacks on member nations. Alhasan added that while these clauses have been “theoretical” so far, they could now be activated through measures like creating a unified Gulf command, integrating air and missile defense systems, and building more independent indigenous capabilities.
Most of the seven Gulf states rely heavily on US military hardware and host American bases. However, recent perceived American failures to defend their territories could prompt these nations to diversify their defense capabilities or demand stronger US security guarantees. Sager believes the Israeli attack could push the Gulf region to “enter into a serious and structured dialogue” with the Trump administration on the terms of their security partnership, seeking clearer defense guarantees and accountability for perceived ambiguities in US commitments.
However, efforts to find a regional consensus may be limited by competing domestic interests among Gulf states, which remain wary of jeopardizing their relationship with the United States. Analysts point out that Gulf states realize they are “not particularly well equipped to address the threat posed by Israel,” as their national security is largely predicated on a defense partnership with the US, which explicitly maintains a foreign defense policy giving Israel a qualitative military edge.
Economic Leverage
The vast revenues from the region’s oil and gas exports are strategically invested in global assets, providing significant soft power. Gulf states such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE could potentially utilize their substantial sovereign wealth funds to impose trade limitations on Israel. Alhasan suggested they “could decide to use their funds to boycott companies who have significant stakes in the Israeli economy.”
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar collectively pledged to invest approximately three trillion dollars in the US economy when President Trump visited the region during his second term. Al-Saif noted that these investments are premised on a secure and safe Gulf space. He added, “But if we feel insecure, which is happening thanks to an American ally like Israel, the money can go somewhere else, whether to better secure the Gulf or earn better returns on their investments.”
The recent Israeli strike in Doha has thus ignited a critical period of re-evaluation for Gulf Arab states, as they navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. While seeking to project a united front and deter future aggression, their options remain constrained by existing security partnerships and economic ties, pushing them to explore a range of diplomatic, legal, and defense strategies to safeguard their regional stability.
