Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
China has issued a stern warning to the Philippines to cease what it described as “provocations” in the South China Sea, even as the United States simultaneously reaffirmed its unwavering support for Manila amidst escalating tensions over the contested waters. This warning from Beijing comes as Washington voiced concern over China’s reported plan to designate Scarborough Shoal, a rich fishing ground, as a nature reserve, a move that could further restrict Filipino fishermen.
China Cautions Manila, Dismisses External Support
Senior Colonel Tian Junli, spokesperson for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command, stated on Sunday that Chinese forces had conducted “routine” patrols in the South China Sea. He cautioned Manila against escalating disputes, saying, “We sternly warn the Philippines to immediately stop provoking incidents and escalating tensions in the South China Sea.”
The PLA spokesperson further added that its troops would continue to defend China’s sovereignty in the region and dismissed outside involvement as pointless. “Bringing in external backing is doomed to be futile,” Tian said, in an apparent reference to US support for the Philippines.
Beijing’s Expansive Claims and Disputed Waters
China asserts sovereignty over nearly the entire South China Sea, a strategic waterway through which over $3 trillion in annual trade passes. This expansive claim significantly overlaps with those of the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei, and has long been a source of regional friction.
Beijing has consistently rejected the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which found that China had unlawfully blocked Filipino fishermen from accessing Scarborough Shoal. Despite that decision, China has maintained control of the atoll since 2012 and continues to station vessels there.
US Expresses Concern Over Scarborough Shoal
The latest warning from China follows the United States voicing concern over Beijing’s reported plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday accused China of using coercive tactics to advance its territorial ambitions.
“Beijing claiming Scarborough Reef as a nature preserve is yet another coercive attempt to advance sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours,” Rubio stated. He also urged Beijing to respect the 2016 tribunal ruling, which found that China had unlawfully blocked Filipino fishermen from accessing Scarborough Shoal.
Scarborough Shoal lies well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but remains under constant Chinese surveillance. Filipino fishermen, meanwhile, fear that the proposed nature reserve designation could further curtail their ability to operate in the area.
US-Philippines Alliance Reaffirmed
Manila has leaned heavily on its alliance with Washington for support in the face of China’s assertiveness. The US has repeatedly reiterated that its mutual defence treaty with the Philippines applies to attacks on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.
Escalating Regional Tensions
With both sides hardening their positions, the long-running maritime dispute remains one of the most volatile flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region. This dynamic heightens the risk of confrontation between China and its Southeast Asian neighbors, particularly with the continued backing of the United States.
