Hungary’s Ukraine Poll: How Orban’s Political Maneuvering Fuels EU Division

The Hungarian government’s Voks2025 opinion poll, which ran from April 14 to June 20, 2025, has drawn significant criticism for its alleged role as a domestic political tool rather than a genuine gauge of public sentiment on Ukraine’s European Union accession. While official results indicated that 95% of participants opposed Ukraine joining the EU, analysts and Kyiv’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs contend that Prime Minister Viktor Orban utilized the poll to mobilize his voter base and divert attention from internal socioeconomic issues.

Controversial Poll Draws Criticism

The Voks2025 poll posed a simple question to participants: whether they supported or opposed Ukraine’s EU accession. Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party maintained that the poll merely allowed citizens to express their opinions, but experts quickly labeled it a political instrument.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs sharply criticized the initiative, asserting that its true aim was to distract from the Hungarian government’s socioeconomic challenges. Kyiv also argued that Budapest employed “groundless anti-Ukrainian rhetoric” to manipulate the outcome and achieve a predetermined result.

Timing and Rationale

Prime Minister Orban announced the opinion poll shortly after other EU member states had collectively endorsed key conclusions on Ukraine at a March meeting of EU heads of state and government. The other 26 EU members committed to providing Ukraine with comprehensive political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic support, alongside further sanctions against Russia.

While Orban publicly justified his opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession by claiming it would lead to an economic collapse in Hungary, analysts offered a different interpretation. Political analyst Zoltan Lakner suggested that the Voks2025 poll was designed to prolong the Ukraine issue into the post-war period by framing it as an external threat. He added that Fidesz aimed to generate quasi-referendum support to embed this foreign policy stance into Hungarian domestic political debates.

Impact on Bilateral Relations

Relations between Hungary and Ukraine have deteriorated amid disinformation campaigns targeting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Tensions escalated further following Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claims of uncovering a Hungarian military spy network in western Ukraine and the subsequent detention of two alleged agents.

In response, the Hungarian government reportedly attempted to leverage the spy scandal against the opposition Tisza Party and its leader, Peter Magyar. Orban claimed that Ukrainian forces sought to use the Tisza Party to undermine the Voks2025 poll. Lakner noted that the poll served to energize Fidesz voters and maintain uncertainty among those considering a shift to the Tisza Party, viewing Magyar’s cautious stance on the issue as evidence of Fidesz’s anti-Ukrainian campaign’s effectiveness.

Questions of Legitimacy and Influence

Constitutional lawyer Peter Stanicz stated that Voks2025 lacks legal interpretability, functioning purely as a political tool without legal consequences or a legal basis. He highlighted that, unlike referendums, non-constitutional opinion polls offer no legal remedies or guarantees.

Daniel Rona, director of the Budapest-based 21 Research Center, also questioned the poll’s legitimacy. He pointed out that online respondents could vote multiple times, making it impossible to verify the actual number of participants. Rona concluded that Fidesz’s objective was to “boost the activity of its own voters and keep topics on the agenda where the government’s position is more popular than the government itself.” The Hungarian government did not respond to requests for comment.

Broader Implications

Months after Voks2025 concluded, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) adopted Fidesz’s narrative, alleging that Brussels was angered by Budapest’s efforts to influence collective decision-making, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine. The SVR further claimed that Kyiv was also working to remove the Hungarian government due to Orban’s obstruction of Ukraine’s European integration process.

The SVR suggested a plan for the European Commission to bring Magyar and his party to power in the spring 2026 parliamentary elections, or potentially earlier. Peter Magyar responded to the Russian intelligence service’s statement by asserting that Vladimir Putin had begun to interfere in Hungarian elections. While the success of Fidesz’s anti-Ukrainian campaign in upcoming elections remains uncertain, the episode has undoubtedly deepened tensions between Budapest and Kyiv, transforming Ukraine’s EU accession into a significant domestic political issue for Hungary.