Economy

Poland’s Border Closure: How EU-China Trade Faces a €25 Billion Disruption and What’s Next

Poland closed its border with Belarus, disrupting EU-China trade due to security concerns. The EU is monitoring the impact.

byAndres Castro

September 19, 2025, 10:59 AM

Soldiers in camouflage stand near barbed wire fences

Soldiers in Polish military uniforms stand guard near coiled barbed wire fences, indicating a border security situation. By Bumble Dee / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

Poland has closed all border crossings with Belarus, including railway traffic, due to security concerns following joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises and a drone incursion.

The border closure severs a crucial overland trade route between the European Union and China, impacting an estimated €25 billion in annual goods trade.

The European Commission is closely monitoring the situation, acknowledging it as a security issue linked to Russia’s war, and is in contact with Polish authorities without criticizing the decision.

The Story So Far

Poland’s decision to close all border crossings with Belarus, including railway traffic, is a direct response to escalating security concerns, notably large-scale joint military exercises by Belarusian and Russian forces near its border and a recent incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace. This measure extends previous restrictions implemented since 2021 due to Minsk’s instrumentalized migration campaign, with the European Commission linking the broader security challenges to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

Why This Matters

Poland’s complete border closure with Belarus, in response to escalating security concerns, severs a crucial overland trade route between the EU and China, directly impacting an estimated €25 billion in annual goods trade and forcing carriers to seek alternative, potentially more costly, logistical solutions. This move not only highlights a significant deterioration in regional security but also presents economic challenges for specific sectors, despite the overall EU-China trade being largely maritime, with the European Commission supporting Poland’s security stance while assessing the full economic ramifications.

Who Thinks What?

Poland decreed the complete closure of its border with Belarus, including railway traffic, citing “security concerns” due to large-scale Belarusian-Russian military exercises and 19 Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace.

The European Commission is “looking at it closely” and is in touch with Polish authorities, avoiding criticism of Poland and emphasizing solidarity, stating that the closure is a “security issue” and any trade challenges are a consequence of “Russia’s brutal, illegal and unjustified war.”

The border closure directly interrupts a crucial overland trade route connecting the EU and China, affecting an estimated €25 billion in annual goods trade and presenting a “logistical challenge” for carriers.

The European Commission is closely monitoring the potential economic fallout from Poland’s recent decision to close all border crossings with Belarus, a move that has effectively severed a crucial overland trade route between the European Union and China amidst escalating security tensions. This measure, implemented by Warsaw in response to joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises and a recent drone incursion, extends to railway traffic, impacting an estimated €25 billion in annual goods trade.

Poland Cites Security Concerns for Border Closure

Poland decreed the complete closure of its border with Belarus this week, citing concerns for the safety of its citizens. This decision follows large-scale military exercises conducted by Belarusian and Russian forces near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, as well as an unprecedented incursion of 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace.

The new restrictions go beyond previous measures, which had primarily targeted road traffic since Minsk launched a campaign of instrumentalized migration in 2021. Railway traffic, previously largely unaffected by security tensions, is now also included in the indefinite closure.

Economic Impact on EU-China Trade Route

The closure directly interrupts a traditional overland trade route connecting the EU and China. While the Polish interior ministry acknowledged the logistical “challenge” for carriers and suggested the Belarus-Lithuania crossing as an alternative, it noted that “losses will be assessed once we know how long the border will be closed.”

Reports indicate that the railway closure affects approximately €25 billion in goods exchanged annually between the EU and China. This figure represents a small fraction of the total €732 billion in goods traded between the two blocs in 2024, the majority of which is transported by sea.

European Commission’s Stance and Response

Olof Gill, the Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson, confirmed that the institution is “looking at it closely” but stated it was “too early to go into further detail.” The European Commission, which holds exclusive competence on trade matters, has carefully avoided criticizing Poland, emphasizing solidarity with Warsaw since tensions with Belarus began.

Gill echoed the Polish position, stating, “This is a security issue.” He added that any trade-related challenges arising from the situation are a consequence of “Russia’s brutal, illegal and unjustified war.” The Commission confirmed it is in touch with Polish authorities to assess all aspects of the issue.

International Reactions

It remains unclear whether the European Commission is actively discussing the economic impact with the Chinese government. While Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Polish counterpart, Radosław Sikorski, in Warsaw on Monday, Beijing’s readout of the meeting did not specifically mention the border closure, instead broadly discussing “the sustainable development of bilateral trade.”