Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has offered a new Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction, asserting that the cryptocurrency will be “markedly higher” than its current valuation by 2028, driven by anticipated money printing under a potential President Donald Trump administration. While a mathematical model suggested a staggering $3.4 million per BTC by then, Hayes personally believes the price will not reach that specific figure but will still see significant appreciation from today’s levels.
Hayes’ Rationale for Money Printing
Hayes’s latest blog post posits that extensive US money printing, particularly under a potential Trump presidency, will propel Bitcoin to new record highs within the next three years. He argues that Trump’s administration would aim to “preserve the fruits of the supposed empire for the ruling class,” a strategy he claims previous US presidents have also attempted.
This anticipated monetary expansion, according to Hayes, is necessary to counter a “more united, prosperous, and militarily strong Eurasia,” encompassing Russia, China, India, and Iran. He expresses “extreme confidence” that the incoming administration would resort to aggressive money printing measures.
To implement such a policy, Hayes suggests that Trump would seek to exert influence over the Federal Reserve, appointing individuals who would align monetary policy with a strategy of increased money printing, potentially in conjunction with the US Treasury. He points to the ongoing situation involving Fed governor Lisa Cook as an early indication of such intentions.
Hayes further elaborated that he does not doubt that “team Trump will use all the tricks in the book to print the money this transformation of America requires.”
Implications for Bitcoin
Hayes then considered Bitcoin’s potential response to such an environment. While acknowledging the difficulty in forecasting exact prices, Hayes referenced a historical calculation.
A Theoretical $3.4 Million Target
He stated that “the slope of the percentage increase in Bitcoin to a dollar of credit growth was ~0.19,” which, when extrapolated, resulted in a theoretical 2028 Bitcoin price prediction of $3.4 million.
Hayes’ Final Outlook
Despite this calculation, Hayes reiterated his personal skepticism about reaching the $3.4 million mark. He firmly believes, however, that Bitcoin’s price will be “markedly higher” than its current trading value, which he noted was around $115,000.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Arthur Hayes projects a significantly elevated Bitcoin price by 2028, primarily fueled by expected US money printing under a potential Trump administration. While a specific target of $3.4 million is presented as a theoretical outcome of a historical model, Hayes maintains a more conservative, though still bullish, outlook for Bitcoin’s future value.
