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Economy

Swiss National Bank Warns: How US Tariffs Threaten Swiss Exports and Growth

SNB: U.S. tariffs challenge Swiss exporters, slowing growth. Rate at 0%. Machinery & watchmaking hit. Recession unlikely.

byEditorial Staff

September 25, 2025, 9:01 AM

Executive Summary

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stated that U.S. tariffs pose a significant challenge for its exporters and anticipate a negative impact on the nation’s economic growth.

The SNB revised its 2026 economic growth projection to just under 1% due to the tariffs, with the machinery and watchmaking industries expected to be most affected.

Despite concerns, the SNB projects the broader economic impact to be limited and does not anticipate a recession, maintaining growth projections of 1% to 1.5% for 2025.

The Story So Far

The Swiss National Bank’s revised economic outlook and concerns for exporters stem from new, significantly higher tariffs imposed by the United States, which are anticipated to negatively impact key Swiss export sectors such as machinery and watchmaking.

Why This Matters

The Swiss National Bank anticipates that U.S. tariffs will significantly challenge Swiss exporters, particularly in the machinery and watchmaking sectors, leading to a revised downward growth projection for 2026 to just under 1%. While these tariffs are expected to dampen overall economic activity and impact exports and investments, the SNB believes the broader economic impact will be limited and does not foresee a recession in the near future.

Who Thinks What?

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stated that U.S. tariffs represent a significant challenge for its exporters, leading to a deteriorated economic outlook and a revised projection of just under 1% growth for 2026, particularly impacting the machinery and watchmaking industries.

SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel affirmed that while U.S. tariffs pose a “major challenge” for directly affected companies and will dampen economic activity, the broader economic impact is anticipated to be limited, and the bank does not foresee a recession in the coming quarters.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced Thursday that tariffs imposed by the United States represent a significant challenge for its exporters, anticipating a negative impact on the nation’s economic growth. The central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0% and highlighted the adverse effects of these tariffs during a press conference.

Economic Outlook and Tariff Impact

SNB Governing Board Member Peter Schudin indicated that the bank now projects economic growth of just under 1% for 2026, directly attributing this revised outlook to the tariff situation. This assessment underscores the central bank’s concerns regarding the external economic environment.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel affirmed that the U.S. tariffs pose a “major challenge” for the companies directly affected, expecting them to dampen overall economic activity. However, Schlegel also noted that the broader economic impact is anticipated to be limited.

Despite the tariff concerns, the SNB maintains growth projections of 1% to 1.5% for 2025 and approximately 1% for 2026, suggesting resilience in the face of these headwinds. Schlegel emphasized that the bank does not anticipate a recession in the coming quarters.

Affected Industries

Petra Schudin further elaborated that the economic outlook for Switzerland has deteriorated due to the significantly higher U.S. tariffs, which are expected to impact both exports and investments. The machinery and watchmaking industries are identified as those likely to be most affected by these levies.

Summary

The Swiss National Bank has expressed clear concerns over the economic implications of U.S. tariffs, particularly for its export-oriented sectors. While forecasting a dampened growth trajectory, especially for 2026, the bank’s leadership indicates that the overall economy is expected to avoid a recession.