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Economy

Are US Companies in Europe More Optimistic? Unpacking the Shift in Transatlantic Trade Expectations After the Latest Deal

U.S. companies in Europe are cautiously optimistic after a trade deal, though concerns remain. 46% see ties worsening.

byAndres Castro

September 26, 2025, 9:38 AM

Executive Summary

Nearly half (46%) of U.S. companies in Europe anticipate a decline in transatlantic economic relations, a significant improvement from 89% during President Trump’s administration.

The more optimistic outlook is largely attributed to a recent EU-U.S. trade agreement, which businesses perceived as having “averted unprecedented damage.”

Despite the trade deal, a majority of companies still expect negative impacts from current policy frameworks, with 60% concerned about Washington’s policies and 56% about Brussels’ policies, emphasizing the need to address tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

The Story So Far

The current cautious optimism among U.S. companies in Europe regarding transatlantic economic relations follows a period of significant pessimism during President Trump’s administration, which saw nearly 90% of businesses anticipating deterioration. This improved outlook is largely attributed to a recent EU-U.S. trade agreement that has been positively received for averting further damage, though businesses still harbor concerns about ongoing policy impacts and non-tariff barriers from both Washington and Brussels.

Why This Matters

The recent EU-U.S. trade agreement has significantly improved the outlook of U.S. companies in Europe regarding transatlantic economic relations, marking a notable shift from the more pessimistic sentiment during President Trump’s administration and averting further damage. However, despite this cautious optimism, a majority of businesses still anticipate negative impacts from existing U.S. and EU policies, indicating a continued need for both blocs to address persistent tariff and non-tariff barriers, such as regulatory complexities, to foster a truly stable and predictable trade environment.

Who Thinks What?

Nearly half of U.S. companies operating in Europe anticipate a decline in transatlantic economic relations, though this represents a significant improvement from earlier periods, with many still expecting adverse effects from both Washington’s and Brussels’ policies.

AmCham EU and its members view the recent EU-U.S. trade deal positively, believing it “averted unprecedented damage” and leading one-third of companies to now anticipate stability in economic relations, while also acknowledging that “real concerns about the policy environment remain.”

Nearly half of U.S. companies operating in Europe anticipate a decline in transatlantic economic relations, according to a recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU). While this sentiment remains significant, it marks a substantial improvement from an earlier period during President Trump’s administration, with the survey indicating a notable shift in expectations following a recent EU-U.S. trade agreement.

Survey Highlights Shifting Sentiments

The survey, conducted among 52 U.S.-controlled AmCham EU members between September 8 and 16, revealed that 46% of respondents expect a deterioration in EU-U.S. trade and investment ties. This figure represents a considerable decrease from 89% in a similar survey conducted in January, suggesting a more optimistic outlook among businesses.

Additionally, one-third of the companies surveyed now anticipate stability in economic relations, a shift attributed by some to the trade deal struck between the European Union and the United States at the end of July. AmCham EU, which boasts over 160 members including major corporations like Apple, Goldman Sachs, Meta Platforms, and Visa, underscored the cautious optimism.

Transatlantic Trade Deal and Remaining Concerns

The July trade agreement aims to remove most EU duties on U.S. goods, while the United States will impose 15% import tariffs on a majority of EU products. Despite some criticism from Brussels and various EU capitals, AmCham EU reported that companies viewed the deal positively.

Malte Lohan, CEO of AmCham EU, stated that businesses perceive the deal as having “averted unprecedented damage to transatlantic trade and investment.” However, he also acknowledged that “real concerns about the policy environment remain,” indicating that the agreement has not fully assuaged all anxieties.

Indeed, a majority of companies still foresee a negative impact from current policy frameworks. Specifically, 60% of respondents expect adverse effects from Washington’s policies, while 56% anticipate similar outcomes from Brussels’ policies.

Priorities for Future Economic Ties

The survey identified several key priorities for U.S. companies operating in Europe. Topping the list was the reduction of tariffs, a perennial concern for businesses engaged in cross-border trade.

Beyond tariffs, companies emphasized the critical need to address non-tariff barriers. These include complex regulatory challenges such as EU rules on deforestation and supply chain due diligence. Furthermore, respondents called for stronger cooperation and mutual recognition of standards between the two economic blocs to streamline operations and foster greater integration.

Outlook for U.S. Businesses in Europe

While the latest survey indicates a notable improvement in the outlook of U.S. companies operating in Europe regarding transatlantic economic relations, underlying concerns about policy impacts and persistent trade barriers continue to shape their expectations. The recent trade deal is seen as a positive step, yet the call for further action on tariffs and non-tariff obstacles highlights the ongoing challenges in fostering a fully robust and predictable economic environment.