Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
The U.S. Commerce Department has significantly expanded its export restrictions, announcing a new rule that automatically includes subsidiaries 50% or more owned by companies already on its Entity List. This measure, issued on Monday, aims to prevent firms from circumventing existing curbs on critical technologies, primarily impacting Chinese entities and signaling potential disruptions across global supply chains.
Expanded Export Controls
The new rule requires U.S. exporters to obtain licenses before shipping goods or technology to these newly captured subsidiaries, with many such applications likely to face denial. The Commerce Department stated the action “closes a significant loophole,” addressing concerns that new foreign companies could be created to evade existing Entity List restrictions.
This expansion greatly increases the number of companies subject to U.S. export controls. It also places a greater burden on exporters to determine ownership structures before proceeding with transactions, though a 60-day grace period may apply for certain transactions.
China’s Condemnation
China’s Commerce Ministry strongly criticized the U.S. rule, issuing a statement calling the move “extremely egregious in nature.” The ministry argued that it “seriously infringes upon the legitimate rights and interests of the affected enterprises, severely disrupts international economic and trade order and gravely undermines the security and stability of global industrial and supply chains.”
Impact on Key Sectors and Companies
While the Entity List includes companies worldwide, experts anticipate the change will most significantly affect Chinese entities. Sectors such as older, less sophisticated chip production, aircraft manufacturing, and medical equipment are likely to experience repercussions.
Chinese technology giants like Huawei, video surveillance firm Hikvision, and drone manufacturer DJI are cited as examples of companies that may be impacted by the expanded restrictions. Many Huawei subsidiaries are already listed, but not all.
An analysis by data company Kharon indicated that the rule could bring thousands of previously unlisted subsidiaries in nearly 100 countries, including major trade and finance hubs like the EU, the United States, and Japan, under export control scrutiny.
Broader Context
The Entity List, first established in 1997, traditionally applied restrictions only to specifically named companies or organizations. The latest amendment is similar to the “50% rule” enforced by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control for sanctioned entities.
The timing of this rule’s release is considered surprising by some, given ongoing U.S.-China trade discussions. It also contrasts with Washington’s recent decision to loosen controls on certain AI chips to China, such as Nvidia’s H20.
Despite the tightening, legal experts like Dan Fisher-Owens suggest that companies on the Entity List may respond by restructuring their ownership, indicating that the “game of whack-a-mole will continue.”
Outlook
This expansion of the Entity List represents a significant escalation in U.S. export controls, particularly targeting China’s economic and technological ambitions. While designed to reinforce national security and foreign policy objectives, it is expected to create complexities for global supply chains and draws strong condemnation from Beijing, signaling ongoing tensions in U.S.-China economic relations.
