Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 5% gain, reaching $114,000, leading market analysts to suggest that a significant upward movement may be imminent. Key indicators, including the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) RSI, long-term holder accumulation, and historical post-September rallies, point towards a potentially strong fourth quarter for the cryptocurrency.
Stablecoin Buying Power Increases
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which gauges the buying power of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin, has seen its Relative Strength Index (RSI) decline to its lowest point in four months. Onchain data provider CryptoQuant noted that the Bitcoin SSR RSI is currently at 21, indicating “buy” territory.
Historically, similar SSR RSI levels have coincided with Bitcoin price bottoms, such as when BTC fell below $75,000 before a substantial rally. A lower SSR suggests increased stablecoin buying power, a sentiment reinforced by the growing stablecoin supply, including over 10 billion Tether USDt (USDT) minted in the last 60 days, signaling fresh market liquidity.
Long-Term Holders Accumulate
Long-term Bitcoin holders are consistently expanding their holdings, with accumulation addresses now securing a record 298,000 BTC. This trend indicates strong confidence among these investors regarding Bitcoin’s future price appreciation, suggesting they anticipate continued growth.
Market Reset Signals Bottom
Analytics platform Swissblock has also observed a market reset, based on its aggregated impulse signal, which tracks the exponential price structure across the top 350 crypto assets. The metric recently dropped to 20% from over 100% just weeks prior, a level Swissblock identifies as the point where “panic exhausts and new buyers step in.”
This “reset” has occurred only three times since early 2024, with each instance preceding a “cycle bottom” and subsequent recovery in Bitcoin’s price. The platform suggests the market is approaching this setup again, hinting at a potential local bottom for BTC after a recent drop to $108,650.
Historical Q4 Rallies Anticipated
Bitcoin successfully avoided a “red September” for the third consecutive year, closing the month above $114,000. Historically, September has been Bitcoin’s weakest month, averaging negative returns over 13 years.
However, a green September close has historically preceded substantial gains in the fourth quarter. Popular analyst Mikybull Crypto highlighted that “Whenever $BTC closed green in September, what followed in Q4 was usually a massive rally.” Data from CoinGlass shows that the October-December period is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with average gains of 78%.
Outlook for the Coming Months
Based on these combined signals—increased stablecoin buying power, consistent accumulation by long-term holders, a market reset indicating a bottom, and the historical precedent of strong Q4 performance following a green September—analysts anticipate Bitcoin could experience significant gains in the coming three months, potentially marking its most substantial rallies of the current bull cycle.
