Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their second-best week of inflows since launch, accumulating $3.24 billion in net positive inflows last week. This surge signals renewed investor optimism at the start of October, a month historically known as “Uptober” within the crypto community for its strong Bitcoin performance. The inflows briefly propelled Bitcoin’s price above $123,996 on Friday, reaching an over six-week high.
ETF Inflows Drive Market Sentiment
The $3.24 billion in cumulative net positive inflows nearly matched the record of $3.38 billion set in the week ending November 22, 2024, according to data from SoSoValue. This figure marks a significant rebound from the previous week’s $902 million in outflows, indicating a notable shift in market sentiment.
Analysts attribute this turnaround to growing expectations of another US interest rate cut, which has improved sentiment toward risk assets. Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo, noted that renewed investor demand has brought four-week inflows to nearly $4 billion.
Kalchev further stated that “ETF absorption is accelerating while long-term holder distribution eases, helping BTC build a stronger base” near key technical support levels. He projected that at current run-rates, Q4 flows could remove over 100,000 BTC from circulation, more than double new issuance.
Price Action and Future Projections
The recent price surge briefly pushed Bitcoin above $123,996 on Friday, a level not seen since August 14. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggested that a sustained breakout above $120,000 could lead to a “very quick move” past the $150,000 all-time high before the end of 2025.
Kalchev emphasized that Bitcoin ETFs are now the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the crypto industry, pointing to an early Q4 breakout driven by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions. Historically, October averages around 20% returns for Bitcoin, followed by 46% in November and 4% in December, according to CoinGlass data.
Upcoming Economic Watchpoints
Bitcoin’s continued momentum will depend on several upcoming events, including a speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors are also monitoring the delayed US jobs report, whose publication date is contingent on the duration of the current US government shutdown.
Key Takeaways
The robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs at the start of October highlight a resurgence in investor confidence, fueled by expectations of interest rate cuts and Bitcoin’s historical “Uptober” performance. While analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach new highs, upcoming macroeconomic data and policy announcements will be crucial in shaping its short-term trajectory.
