Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
A prominent crypto analyst predicts Bitcoin could swiftly reach $150,000, while a Bitget executive expresses significant skepticism about the return of a broad altcoin season, marking key discussions in the digital asset space from September 28 to October 4. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s interest is reportedly shifting towards IPO-ready crypto firms, and a U.S. judge dismissed a high-profile lawsuit against Yuga Labs over its NFTs.
Market Outlook and Predictions
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggested that Bitcoin could surge to $150,000 before the end of 2025, driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets. Edwards indicated that a breakout above the $120,000 psychological mark could lead to a “very quick” move to this new all-time high, potentially in a matter of days. Bitcoin’s price recently recovered above $118,500, marking a more than 6% increase over the past week.
Conversely, Vugar Usi Zade, chief operating officer at Bitget, voiced strong doubts about a widespread altcoin season in the current cycle. Speaking at the Token2049 conference in Singapore, Zade stated that the expectation of “everything going up because it’s altseason” is unlikely, as traders are focusing on narrower trends or exclusively on Bitcoin.
Industry Developments
New research from crypto financial services firm Matrixport suggests Wall Street’s focus is shifting towards late-stage, IPO-ready cryptocurrency companies rather than early-stage altcoin bets. Matrixport estimates over $200 billion worth of crypto firms are preparing for initial public offerings, potentially raising $30 billion to $45 billion in new capital. This shift could disrupt the traditional boom-and-bust cycles of digital assets, with Wall Street incentivized to extend the bull market through these public listings.
In a significant legal development, a U.S. judge dismissed an investor lawsuit against Web3 company Yuga Labs, creator of the Bored Ape Yacht Club. Judge Fernando M. Olguin ruled that the plaintiffs failed to demonstrate how Yuga Labs’ non-fungible tokens (NFTs) met the legal definition of securities under the Howey test. The judge noted that Yuga Labs marketed its NFTs as digital collectibles with membership perks, classifying them as consumables rather than investment contracts.
Corporate and Regulatory News
Bitcoin miner CleanSpark reported ending September with 13,011 BTC in its treasury after selling 445 Bitcoin for approximately $48.7 million at an average price of $109,568. The company’s monthly production increased by 27% year-over-year, with fleet efficiency improving by 26%. CleanSpark has been selling a portion of its monthly Bitcoin production since April to achieve financial self-sufficiency and has also launched an institutional Bitcoin trading desk.
TON Strategy CEO Veronika Kapustina addressed concerns about a “bubble” in corporate digital asset treasuries, acknowledging the indicators but maintaining a positive long-term outlook. Kapustina described the trend as a “new segment of finance,” suggesting that while initial “fast money” interest might resemble a bubble, it will eventually lead to consolidation and the entry of real medium to long-term capital.
President Donald Trump nominated Travis Hill, the acting chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), to officially lead the agency for a five-year term. Hill has previously advocated for clearer guidance on digital assets and spoken against allegations of U.S. authorities “debanking” companies due to their ties to crypto, clarifying that banks could engage with digital assets as a “permissible activity.”
The U.S. Senate Finance Committee is set to hold a hearing on cryptocurrency taxation, following recent interim guidance from the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This guidance aims to ease compliance under the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax (CAMT) for companies, including those in the digital assets sector. The CAMT, part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, imposes a 15% minimum tax on large corporations’ financial statement income.
Roman Storm, co-founder of crypto mixer Tornado Cash, has sought acquittal from a U.S. federal judge on his conviction for unlicensed money transmission. Storm’s defense argued that prosecutors failed to prove he intended to help bad actors misuse Tornado Cash, which they contend would nullify the grounds for his conviction based on negligent inaction.
Key Takeaways
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing divergent views on its future trajectory, with strong Bitcoin price predictions contrasting with skepticism about altcoin growth. Regulatory and legal clarity continues to evolve, as evidenced by the Yuga Labs lawsuit dismissal and new tax guidance, while traditional finance’s engagement with crypto appears to be maturing through a focus on IPO-ready firms.
