World

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Can Beijing’s Tech Ambitions Outpace US Restrictions?

China‘s plan aims for tech leadership by 2035. Focus: science, AI, and semiconductors amid US competition.

October 7, 2025, 7:33 AM

A technician in a cleanroom suit and face mask assembling electronics using a microscope at a high-tech factory

A worker is assembling electronic components for major tech companies at a direct assembly workshop in Jiujiang, China. By humphery / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

China’s upcoming 15th five-year plan will prioritize scientific and technological advancement, aiming for global leadership by 2035, with the next half-decade seen as crucial for breakthroughs.

The plan specifically targets critical sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, which face significant challenges due to international competition and US-led export restrictions.

Under the current 14th five-year plan, China has significantly increased R&D investment by 48% since 2020, maintains the world’s largest number of researchers, and ranks 10th in the Global Innovation Index.

The Story So Far

China is currently drafting its 15th five-year plan, a continuation of its long-standing national development strategy, which explicitly prioritizes scientific and technological advancement with the goal of achieving global leadership by 2035. This strategic push is particularly urgent as Beijing identifies the next half-decade as crucial for breakthroughs in critical sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, where the nation faces significant challenges from intensifying international competition and US-led export restrictions on advanced technologies.

Why This Matters

China’s upcoming 15th five-year plan, with its explicit goal of achieving global scientific and technological leadership by 2035, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, signals a significant escalation in geopolitical competition, especially with the US. This strategic push, driven by substantial R&D investment and a focus on self-reliance, is poised to reshape the global technology landscape while also underscoring the ongoing challenges China faces due to international export restrictions.

Who Thinks What?

Chinese officials view the 15th five-year plan as a critical blueprint to achieve global leadership in science and technology by 2035, emphasizing self-reliance and breakthroughs in key areas like semiconductors and AI, particularly in response to international competition and US export restrictions.

Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun highlights substantial progress under the current 14th five-year plan, citing a 48 percent surge in national R&D investment, the world’s largest number of researchers, and improved global innovation rankings, indicating a robust foundation for future technological advancements.

China is currently drafting its 15th five-year plan, a comprehensive blueprint that will prioritize scientific and technological advancement, with an explicit goal of achieving global leadership by 2035. This strategic push comes as the nation identifies the next half-decade as crucial for breakthroughs, particularly in critical sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence, where international competition and US-led export restrictions pose significant challenges.

Context of the Five-Year Plan

The 15th five-year plan represents the latest in a series of national blueprints that have guided China’s development for over seven decades. Its focus on science and technology underscores Beijing’s ambition to transform the country into a leading innovation hub.

Officials view the upcoming five-year period as a decisive window for achieving significant advancements. This strategy aims to solidify China’s position in key technological domains amidst a complex geopolitical landscape.

Recent Progress and Challenges

Reporting on the ongoing 14th five-year plan (2021-2025) on September 18, Minister of Science and Technology Yin Hejun highlighted substantial progress. National research and development investment has reportedly surged by 48 percent compared to 2020, and China maintains the world’s largest number of researchers.

The country has also climbed to 10th place in the Global Innovation Index and has led the world for five consecutive years in high-impact international journal publications and patent applications. These metrics indicate a robust growth trajectory in scientific output.

While China has achieved front-runner status in areas such as space exploration, 5G technology, and new energy, the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors remain significant hurdles. These areas are described as key battlegrounds, particularly due to US-led export curbs that restrict China’s access to advanced chip manufacturing technologies.

Strategic Outlook

As China prepares its next five-year plan, the emphasis on scientific and technological self-reliance and global leadership is clear. The plan seeks to navigate intensifying international competition and address vulnerabilities in strategic industries through sustained investment and talent cultivation.