Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Brussels, October 8 – Despite a G7 agreement to coordinate tougher sanctions against Russia, U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance on implementing further measures remains uncertain, according to the European Union’s sanctions chief. David O’Sullivan indicated that while sanctions are impacting the Russian economy, the U.S. has not fully aligned with its G7 partners on all punitive actions, and China continues to resist engagement on circumvention efforts.
G7 Coordination and U.S. Alignment
Last week, the Group of Seven nations—comprising the U.S., Japan, Canada, Britain, France, Germany, and Italy—agreed to intensify sanctions against Moscow. The focus is on targeting countries that facilitate sanctions circumvention, particularly through the purchase of Russian oil. While specific countries were not named, India, China, and Turkey have significantly increased their Russian crude purchases since February 2022.
The U.S. has imposed additional tariffs on Indian imports to pressure New Delhi regarding its discounted Russian crude purchases. However, similar measures have not been applied to other major importers. O’Sullivan noted that President Trump’s willingness to support further sanctions against the Kremlin is “the great unknown of the situation.”
O’Sullivan observed signs that Trump may be losing patience with President Putin, but whether this will translate into additional U.S. sanctions remains an open question. He suggested the U.S. needs to align more closely with the rest of the G7 on sanctions, having previously focused on peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine. For instance, the EU, Britain, and Canada lowered the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.60 a barrel in early September, a move the U.S. did not join, which O’Sullivan described as “regrettable.”
Sanctions Effectiveness and EU Strategy
While President Trump has advocated for tariffs on major importers of Russian crude, O’Sullivan stated that many EU countries, along with Canada and Britain, are “less convinced” of their efficacy. These allies believe that pressure on ports, the “shadow fleet,” and refineries would be more effective. Western powers aim to leverage Russia’s slowing economy by further reducing its oil and gas revenues.
O’Sullivan expressed a desire for increased U.S. pressure on EU members Slovakia and Hungary to cease their oil and pipeline gas purchases. The EU also plans to accelerate the phase-out of its Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in its proposed 19th package of sanctions. O’Sullivan affirmed that Western sanctions are “clearly working,” citing “flashing red” indicators in the Russian economy, despite Moscow’s ongoing efforts to circumvent them.
Focus on China
Given the uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitment to additional sanctions, the EU is pursuing a parallel strategy targeting China, which Brussels views as a key facilitator in Russia’s sanctions evasion network. China is seen as enabling the flow of battlefield goods and advanced microelectronics used in drones and missiles.
Efforts to engage Beijing on this issue have stalled, with China maintaining that its trade with Russia is “normal.” O’Sullivan highlighted instances where items like drones, though not inherently military, are used in a military context, which China does not acknowledge as circumvention. He stated that the EU is “slowly starting to address the issue of bad actors in China.”
Brussels has begun listing more entities in third countries in its recent sanctions packages. The 18th package included two Chinese banks and India’s second-largest refining complex, while the ongoing 19th package is expected to list independent Chinese refineries and Central Asian banks. O’Sullivan emphasized that the EU would prefer a “more constructive, systemic dialogue with China,” but Beijing has so far appeared unwilling to engage on the matter.
