Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Hostages have been released from Gaza and reunited with their families, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s address to the Israeli Knesset, where he declared a “historic dawn of a new Middle East.” These developments precede a summit in Egypt where world leaders are set to discuss the next phases of President Trump’s 20-point plan for long-term peace and the rehabilitation of Gaza. Amidst these unfolding events, analyst Brett H. McGurk has highlighted three critical questions that will determine the success of this complex initiative.
What Does Hamas Do?
In previous hostage deals, Hamas has reportedly used ceasefires to re-establish control within Gaza, engaging in propaganda displays and targeting Palestinians who resisted their authority. This pattern has historically jeopardized efforts to extend truces into longer-term peace agreements.
However, the current deal introduces significant differences. It allows Israeli forces to remain in over half of the Gaza Strip, a concession Hamas had previously resisted. The agreement also authorizes foreign military forces to enter these areas to prevent Hamas’s return and enjoys support from nearly all Arab and Muslim-majority states, calling for Hamas to disarm.
Despite these limitations on its maneuvering room, Hamas may still turn its aggression toward innocent Palestinians. For Gaza’s full rehabilitation and reconstruction to proceed, Hamas must accept the deal in its entirety and relinquish its claim to authority in the Strip.
Are Interim Political and Security Structures Developing?
The success of the 20-point plan hinges on the establishment of viable interim security forces and political structures for Gaza. If these entities are not effectively stood up, there is a risk that Hamas could eventually re-establish its authority by force, thereby undermining any hope for lasting peace or rehabilitation.
The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether countries are prepared to contribute forces to an interim security force and if an interim governing entity can be formed without protracted disputes. A positive sign is the positioning of the U.S. military under Central Command outside Gaza, intended to monitor the situation and facilitate such a force, though U.S. forces are not expected to enter Gaza directly.
While the participation in a political entity is ultimately for Palestinians to decide, U.S. leadership is considered essential to prevent the process from devolving into prolonged wrangling, which could benefit Hamas.
Is a Viable Reconstruction Plan Developing?
The reconstruction of Gaza is anticipated to be a monumental undertaking, potentially spanning a decade and requiring hundreds of billions of dollars. This effort is considered even more complex than the reconstruction of Mosul in Iraq, given Gaza’s extensive network of 300 miles of multi-story tunnels built over two decades.
Any hope for the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip necessitates a globally coordinated effort, led by the United States and involving non-Hamas affiliated Palestinians, alongside substantial resources from America’s regional partners and allies. The upcoming summit in Cairo is expected to focus on securing specific resource commitments and outlining an organized plan for implementation.
Crucially, if Hamas insists on maintaining security control over areas designated under President Trump’s deal, it will likely impede reconstruction efforts in those regions. Without Hamas relinquishing security control, few countries are expected to commit resources or personnel to Gaza’s rebuilding.
While the immediate focus remains on the emotional return of hostages after 740 days of captivity, the long-term prospects for Gaza and for peace between Israelis and Palestinians are inextricably linked to Hamas’s willingness to relinquish power. Beyond celebrating the reunions, attention must now turn to the full and effective implementation of President Trump’s comprehensive 20-point plan.
