Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
European diplomats and officials across Brussels and London indicate that the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza will not be quickly forgotten by European leaders, even as a peace deal brokered by President Trump aims to end the conflict. Despite relief over the release of Israeli hostages and prospects for peace, many believe sustained pressure on Israel is essential for accountability, justice, and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza.
Continued European Scrutiny
Officials across Europe are convinced that their collective efforts to pressure Israel into a ceasefire have yielded results and must persist. They express reservations about certain aspects of President Trump’s initiative and caution against prematurely reducing diplomatic pressure, citing strong sentiment among their own electorates.
The extensive destruction in Gaza and the reported deaths of over 60,000 people demand thorough accountability, justice, and a robustly funded reconstruction plan, according to these officials. One EU official stated, “Our pressure is still important. If we want to lift all the pressure, then Israel needs to deliver.”
Gaza War’s Divisive Impact
Over the past two years, the conflict in Gaza has deeply divided societies across Europe and created significant rifts within the highest echelons of the European Union. As the humanitarian crisis escalated, pro-Palestinian protests became widespread in European cities, alongside an increase in antisemitic attacks on Jewish sites.
EU leaders progressively lost patience, attributing a man-made famine in Gaza to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration, despite Israel’s stated objective of dismantling Hamas.
Past and Present EU Actions
France, under President Emmanuel Macron, previously led an initiative to recognize the state of Palestine at a special United Nations conference. This move reinforced international calls for Israel to cease its assault and facilitate aid delivery to Gaza.
The European Commission had also proposed a range of sanctions and penalties aimed at impacting trade and cooperation with Israel. However, the EU’s 27 member states were unable to agree on implementing these measures, though the proposals remain under consideration.
Response to the Peace Deal
The ceasefire and hostage deal, inspired by President Trump, presents an opportunity for a reset in relations between Israel and Europe. Israel’s new ambassador to the EU has called for the bloc to lift all threats of sanctions and restore full bilateral cooperation, arguing the truce negates the need for restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson, however, maintained a cautious stance, indicating that while the changed “context” could lead to a review of proposals and existing measures, no decision would be made until national government ministers meet. EU Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid, Hadja Lahbib, underscored on X that the release of hostages was “only the first step,” emphasizing the need for urgent aid to Palestinians and lasting political solutions from the upcoming peace summit in Egypt.
Diplomats believe European pressure on Israel has been effective, particularly Macron’s initiative, and are reluctant to relinquish this leverage. For many, the crucial factor for easing EU pressure is the consistent and sufficient delivery of food and supplies to Gaza’s population.
Accountability and Europe’s Role
While President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu exchanged congratulations, some officials in Brussels expressed apprehension, noting Trump’s suggestion of pardoning Netanyahu for corruption charges. An official stressed that Israel must be held accountable for the extensive loss of life and destruction, stating, “Let’s not forget that 60,000 innocent people have been killed, that Gaza is destroyed.”
Germany is reviewing its ban on weapons exports to Israel, assessing whether conditions allow for lifting restrictions. French and British officials also advocate for maintaining diplomatic pressure, deeming it “too premature” to decrease it, given that past concessions from Netanyahu were often made “under duress.”
European officials are advocating for a significant role in the subsequent peace process, seeking representation on President Trump’s proposed “board of peace” for Gaza’s administration. Despite some skepticism regarding the board’s composition and potential commercial interests in the estimated $50 billion reconstruction, the EU, as a major donor, aims for influence beyond financial contributions.
A senior British official noted the U.S.’s desire to “own this” process, raising questions about the U.K.’s participation, while another emphasized Britain’s historic responsibility in the region. The EU’s previous inability to agree on sanctions has reportedly diminished its influence, with one Gulf diplomat suggesting the bloc has been “missing” during the crisis.
Domestic Political Imperatives
European politicians recognize the imperative to appear engaged and effective in the Gaza peace process, as divisions over the Middle East pose a significant threat to domestic political agendas. Events like a recent terrorist attack on a synagogue in Manchester highlight how the Gaza war has exacerbated societal tensions across Europe.
An EU official warned that if Europe fails to play a positive role, it will “pay a price,” particularly as younger generations, exposed to the conflict’s horrors, begin to vote. The official concluded that without justice and accountability, the implications for Europe remain uncertain, suggesting “It’s not the end of it. It’s the beginning.”
