Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
President Donald Trump has reversed his administration’s policy regarding Ukraine’s targeting of Russian energy infrastructure, granting Kyiv approval for strikes deep within Russian territory following a failed peace summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska this summer. The shift comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to visit Washington on Friday, where he is expected to press Trump for additional long-range weaponry, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, to further pressure Moscow.
Policy Reversal After Failed Summit
The strategic change, which includes increased US intelligence sharing on targets inside Russia, marks a significant departure from the Trump administration’s previous stance. Prior to the August 15 summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, officials had reportedly asked Kyiv to refrain from striking Russian oil, gas, and energy facilities while pursuing a peace deal with Moscow.
However, after the summit concluded without a peace agreement, the US gave Ukraine the “green light” to resume these attacks, according to sources familiar with the matter. This decision is part of an effort to increase pressure on Putin and alter his “calculus on continuing the war,” sources indicated.
Ukraine’s Strategic Focus
With US approval, Ukraine has now adopted a deliberate strategy of targeting Russia’s energy-related infrastructure. Sources suggest that with front lines largely frozen and over a million total casualties during the conflict, Ukraine views these strikes as one of the few remaining ways to achieve strategic effects.
The Financial Times was the first to report on US support for Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The White House did not respond to a request for comment regarding these developments.
Zelensky’s Push for Long-Range Weapons
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is slated to meet with President Trump at the White House on Friday, where he intends to push for additional long-range weapons. Zelensky told journalists in Kyiv that his discussions would focus on “air defense and our possibilities with long-range (missiles to put) pressure on Russia.”
President Trump has indicated openness to the idea, recently floating the possibility of providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles if Russia does not significantly alter its negotiating posture. Trump reportedly held a “lengthy call” with Putin on Thursday, the day before Zelensky’s arrival.
Tomahawk Missile Discussions
On Sunday, Zelensky signaled that the use of Tomahawks might be closer, stating, “We see and hear that Russia is afraid that the Americans may give us Tomahawks, which is a signal that exactly such pressure may work for peace.” Trump confirmed Zelensky’s visit was primarily to request these missiles, which can penetrate deep into Russian territory.
When asked about sending the missiles, Trump said, “We’ll see… I may,” adding, “I might tell them that if the war is not settled, that we may very well, we may not, but we may do it. Do they (Russia) want Tomahawks going in their direction? I don’t think so.” A US official stressed that providing Ukraine with Tomahawks is under serious discussion.
Bolstering Ukraine’s Capabilities
In the immediate aftermath of the Alaska summit, the US increased intelligence sharing and approved a sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) missiles. These represent the first tangible steps taken by the Trump administration to bolster Ukraine’s long-range capabilities following the meeting with Putin.
US officials familiar with the matter confirmed that the Trump administration did not impose explicit restrictions on how Ukraine can use these extended-range missiles, which were part of a recently approved $825 million arms sale. Similarly, the previous Biden administration did not establish limitations for weapons like Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs) that were technically capable of striking targets inside Russia.
However, ATACMs offer less range than Tomahawks or ERAMs, requiring Ukrainian forces to maneuver launchers closer to enemy lines. The air-delivered ERAM missiles approved by the Trump administration offer more flexibility, though Russian MiG fighter patrols can still challenge aircraft attempting to deploy them near the border, fueling Ukraine’s request for even longer-range Tomahawks.
Tomahawk cruise missiles boast a 1,500-mile range and speed, making them suitable for evading air defenses and striking critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. The Kremlin has expressed concerns, suggesting US personnel might operate such sophisticated weaponry and highlighting their nuclear capability, raising fears of unintentional escalation.
Outlook
The shift in President Trump’s policy, coupled with increased US intelligence support and the potential provision of advanced long-range missiles, signifies a renewed strategy to exert pressure on Russia. These developments aim to influence Moscow’s war calculus and potentially restart peace negotiations that stalled after the summer’s summit in Alaska.
