Finance

Solana’s Dip: Is This the Start of a Rebound Rally?

Solana‘s price dipped 5.5% this week, retesting its trendline, but historical patterns suggest a potential rebound is likely.

byAndres Castro

October 19, 2025, 10:38 AM

A physical gold Solana coin lies on a screen showing a digital cryptocurrency market chart with fluctuating data and trend lines.

A physical Solana coin is shown on top of a digital financial market performance chart. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Solana’s price experienced a 5.5% weekly slide, retesting its three-year ascending trend channel’s lower boundary, with analysts observing similarities to previous accumulation phases.

Technically, Solana faces resistance at the 20-week EMA ($193) and holds crucial support at the 50-week EMA ($177), with a sustained weekly close below $177 risking deeper corrections.

Market sentiment is mixed, but buyer interest between $177 and $180 suggests the broader bullish trend remains intact, despite intensifying competition from Layer-1 rivals like BNB.

The Story So Far

Solana’s current price activity is taking place within a well-established three-year ascending trend channel, where historical touches of the lower boundary have consistently preceded accumulation phases and subsequent price rallies, prompting analysts to watch for a potential rebound. This occurs amid mixed market sentiment, with buyers actively defending key support levels, and intensifying competition from rival Layer-1 blockchains like BNB vying for market share.

Why This Matters

Solana’s current retest of its three-year ascending trend channel’s lower boundary suggests it may be entering a significant accumulation phase, potentially foreshadowing a rebound if historical patterns hold. However, its immediate price trajectory is highly sensitive to key technical levels, with a sustained close below the $177 support risking deeper corrections, while a break above $193 could reignite upward momentum. This pivotal moment for Solana is also set against a backdrop of intensifying competition from other Layer-1 blockchains, which could impact its future market share and growth.

Who Thinks What?

Analysts and market observers, such as “Master Kenobi,” view Solana’s retest of its three-year ascending trend channel’s lower boundary as an accumulation phase, similar to past instances that preceded price stabilization and upward movements.

Market sentiment is mixed, with active sellers at higher price points, but consistent buyer defense at key support levels (between $177 and $180) suggests the broader bullish trend remains intact despite short-term caution.

Solana’s price has recently experienced a roughly 5.5% weekly slide, prompting a retest of the lower boundary of its three-year ascending trend channel, according to a report published by Gary Ponce for BlockNews on October 19, 2025. Despite the short-term dip, analysts are observing similarities to previous accumulation phases, suggesting a potential rebound if historical patterns hold.

Market Dynamics and Technical Levels

Last week, the cryptocurrency opened near $197, climbed to $211, and then sharply reversed to $174 before closing around $186.51. The weekly candle’s long lower wick indicates active buyer interest, with market participants stepping in to accumulate the asset at lower price points.

Market observer “Master Kenobi” highlighted that Solana has touched this critical baseline six times since 2023. Historically, each instance has marked a significant accumulation phase, preceding price stabilization and subsequent upward movements. Traders are now closely monitoring whether this pattern will repeat.

Key Resistance and Support

From a technical perspective, Solana currently faces resistance at the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is positioned around $193. This level is crucial for any potential upward continuation. Below this, the 50-week EMA near $177 serves as a major support level, vital for maintaining the medium-term uptrend.

A weekly close below the $177 mark could lead to deeper corrective waves, potentially testing the 100-week EMA around $153 and the 200-week EMA closer to $121. Conversely, a sustained weekly close above $193 could reignite momentum towards $211 and potentially higher levels.

Sentiment and Competition

The overall market sentiment for Solana is mixed; while sellers remain active at higher price points, buyers are consistently defending key levels between $177 and $180. This suggests that the broader bullish trend remains intact, despite short-term sentiment turning cautiously bearish due to the asset’s inability to retest its early 2025 highs.

The competitive landscape among Layer-1 blockchains is intensifying, with rivals such as BNB and XRP actively vying for market share. BNB, in particular, has demonstrated stronger performance recently, underscoring the dynamic competitive environment Solana operates within.

Indicator Insights

Technical indicators reflect a period of consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 49.6, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive but shows signs of softening. This combination typically indicates a cooling-off period rather than a decisive trend reversal.

Outlook

Solana is at a pivotal point, with its current price action mirroring patterns seen before significant rallies. Despite short-term challenges and increasing competition, the long-term ascending trend channel and robust buyer defense at key support levels offer reasons for optimism among investors, provided the asset maintains its position above the 50-week EMA.