Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Predictors on Myriad, a prediction market platform, are signaling a renewed bullish sentiment for both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), despite recent market volatility and significant liquidations. As of Thursday afternoon, odds favor Bitcoin reaching $120,000 over dipping to $100,000, while Ethereum is expected to climb to $4,500 rather than fall to $3,100, according to data from Myriad markets.
Bitcoin’s Next Move: $120K or $100K?
The prediction market for Bitcoin’s next major price movement, opened on October 12, has seen considerable swings in sentiment. Initially reflecting the volatile nature of crypto trading, the market’s odds have shifted back towards a bullish outlook after a period of uncertainty.
Currently, Myriad traders assign a 56% probability to Bitcoin climbing to $120,000, marking an almost 11% increase in the last 24 hours. This shift comes as BTC’s price has risen approximately 2% to $110,162, placing it near the midpoint between the two predicted targets.
This bullish lean follows a turnaround in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which saw approximately $470 million enter funds on Tuesday, ending a four-day streak of outflows. However, roughly $100 million was withdrawn on Wednesday, highlighting continued market indecision. Analysts have suggested it is “likely too early to tell if this is the bottom” given the choppy wider markets.
While a jump to $120,000 would represent about a 9% gain from current prices, Myriad users taking a position on the $120,000 outcome could see closer to a 44% return. The market awaits a Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, which could influence Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Ethereum’s Trajectory: $4,500 or $3,100?
Ethereum has lagged behind Bitcoin over the past week, experiencing a slight decline of about 0.6% to $3,887. Despite this, Myriad predictors exhibit stronger optimism for ETH, with a 66% probability assigned to a rise to $4,500.
This represents a 15.5% jump in bullish odds, even as the second-largest crypto asset would need to gain approximately 16% to reach the $4,500 target. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs also saw inflows earlier in the week before experiencing smaller outflows on Wednesday.
Notably, digital asset treasuries, including BitMine Immersion Technologies and SharpLink Gaming, have continued to accumulate ETH, with large investors also reportedly increasing their holdings. The upcoming macroeconomic data on Friday is anticipated to provide further clarity on Ethereum’s immediate future.
Market Sentiment Reflects Cautious Optimism
Overall, Myriad’s prediction markets indicate a prevailing, albeit cautious, bullish sentiment for major cryptocurrencies. Despite ongoing volatility and mixed ETF flows, a majority of participants are betting on upward price movements for both Bitcoin and Ethereum in the near term.
