Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Prediction market users are reflecting heightened market uncertainty across several key cryptocurrency metrics and broader economic factors, with odds rapidly shifting on platforms like Myriad Markets. Traders are currently turning bearish on Bitcoin’s immediate price trajectory, while also predicting that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown will become the longest in history. These sentiment shifts come alongside a tightening race between BNB and XRP for market capitalization dominance, and fluctuating confidence in stablecoins reaching a $360 billion market cap by February.
Bitcoin’s Next Move: $120K or $100K?
The market for Bitcoin’s next major price target—either $120,000 or a dip to $100,000—has seen significant volatility. After briefly favoring a rise to $120,000 with 75% odds earlier this week, predictors on Myriad Markets (a platform from Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan) have turned bearish, with odds for $120,000 falling to 43%. This shift coincides with Bitcoin trading around $107,659, down approximately 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
The broader crypto market experienced a tumble following comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding a potential December rate cut, contributing to the uncertainty. Although Bitcoin has maintained its position above $100,000 since a significant liquidation event earlier this month, a recent Glassnode report suggests its current price range risks further contraction. Conversely, some analysts point to a weakening of gold’s appeal as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s growth as a “debasement trade.”
US Government Shutdown Predicted to Break Records
Predictors on Myriad Markets overwhelmingly believe the current U.S. government shutdown, now in its 30th day, will surpass the 35-day record set during President Donald Trump’s first term. Odds for this outcome have climbed to 83% from 47.5% just ten days prior. Senators failed to find a resolution on Thursday and are not scheduled to reconvene until Monday afternoon, leaving only a few days to avert a historic shutdown length.
Despite President Trump’s return to the United States after travels to Asia, predictors do not anticipate his immediate intervention will significantly alter the shutdown’s trajectory. The Senate’s adjournment until Monday afternoon suggests a resolution will come down to the wire.
BNB and XRP Battle for Market Cap Rank
A new Myriad market is tracking whether BNB or XRP will hold a higher market capitalization by November 2. Both altcoins reached new all-time highs in 2025 and are currently separated by less than $2 billion in market cap, each hovering just under $150 billion.
Recent trading shows BNB dropping 3.9% while XRP fell 7.8% in the last 24 hours, leading to a rapid flip in prediction market sentiment. BNB’s odds of outranking XRP by November 2 have more than doubled in 24 hours, now standing at 57%. The broader crypto market’s downturn, influenced by Fed Chair Powell’s comments on interest rates, adds a layer of uncertainty to this dynamic race.
Stablecoin Market Cap Growth Slows
The stablecoin market, a significant storyline this year with the passing of the GENIUS Act, has seen its total market capitalization grow from $205 billion on January 1 to $307 billion. However, confidence in the market reaching $360 billion by February has waned on Myriad Markets.
Earlier this month, predictors were highly confident with 80% odds for reaching this milestone, but slowing growth has reduced these odds to 53%. The stablecoin market cap dipped slightly by 0.15% ($478 million) in the last week, primarily due to outflows from Ethena’s USDe. Despite this short-term dip, analysts like Standard Chartered anticipate stablecoins could attract $1 trillion from bank deposits in emerging markets, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested a $2 trillion market cap for the asset class is reasonable in the long term.
Market Sentiment Reflects Macroeconomic Headwinds
The fluctuating odds on prediction markets underscore a pervasive sense of uncertainty currently gripping the cryptocurrency space and broader financial markets. From Bitcoin’s price movements to the duration of the US government shutdown and the competitive dynamics between altcoins and stablecoins, traders are navigating a complex landscape influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments.
