Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
The Pentagon has informed the White House that providing long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would not negatively impact US stockpiles, leaving the final decision on their transfer to President Donald Trump. Despite the assessment, Trump indicated earlier this month that he would prefer not to supply the missiles, a stance he reportedly reinforced after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Pentagon Assessment and Ukraine’s Push
The Joint Staff delivered its assessment to the White House earlier in October, just before President Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky has been advocating for the missiles, which have a range of approximately 1,000 miles, to more effectively target oil and energy facilities deep within Russia.
European allies welcomed the Pentagon’s assessment, believing it removed a primary obstacle to the US providing the advanced weaponry. Trump had previously stated the US possessed “a lot of Tomahawks” that could be given to Ukraine.
Trump’s Shifting Stance
However, Trump’s position appeared to shift dramatically days later during a working lunch with Zelensky. He publicly stated the US “needs” the Tomahawks for its own protection and later conveyed privately to Zelensky that the missiles would not be provided “at least not yet.”
This decision followed a phone conversation between Trump and President Putin. According to a CNN report, Putin warned Trump that Tomahawks, capable of striking major Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, would not significantly alter the battlefield situation but would damage US-Russia relations.
Ongoing Deliberations and Operational Challenges
Despite the current hold, sources have indicated that Trump has not entirely ruled out providing the missiles in the future. The administration has reportedly prepared plans for a rapid deployment should Trump authorize the transfer. Trump has also expressed frustration with Putin’s perceived unwillingness to engage in serious peace talks, leading to new US sanctions on Russian oil firms last week and the postponement of a planned meeting with Putin in Budapest.
While stockpile concerns have been alleviated, US defense officials are still addressing operational challenges, including how Ukraine would train on and deploy the missiles effectively. Tomahawks are typically launched from naval vessels, but with Ukraine’s depleted navy, ground-based launchers, potentially from the Marine Corps or Army, would likely be necessary.
European officials believe Ukraine could develop workarounds for launching the missiles, drawing parallels to how Ukrainian engineers adapted UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles for use with their older, Soviet-era fighter jets.
Ukraine’s Long-Range Ambitions
Ukrainian President Zelensky has publicly reiterated his nation’s goal to expand its long-range capabilities by the end of the year. In a post on X, he stated that “all deep-strike goals must be fully locked in by year’s end, including expansion of our long-range footprint,” aiming to conclude the war “on fair terms” for Ukraine.
