Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Americans cast ballots across several states and cities on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, in key elections that are expected to offer significant insights into the national political landscape ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Contests include gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, the New York City mayoral race, a redistricting ballot measure in California, and state Supreme Court retention elections in Pennsylvania. Analysts are closely watching for signs of Democratic momentum, voter sentiment on political rhetoric, and the political implications of a federal government shutdown.
Momentum Ahead of Midterms
One of the primary questions surrounding Election Day 2025 is whether Democrats can demonstrate real momentum heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Despite President Donald Trump’s unpopularity, with a recent poll showing his disapproval rating at 63%, the Democratic party’s overall brand has faced challenges. Historically, presidents with low approval ratings tend to see their party perform poorly in midterms.
However, Democrats have consistently overperformed in recent special elections. These Tuesday elections will provide the most significant clues to date on whether this turnout advantage can be sustained in higher-turnout races. A recent CNN poll indicated encouraging signs for Democrats, showing 67% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters were “extremely” motivated to vote, compared to 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters.
New York City Mayoral Race Dynamics
In New York City, state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is widely expected to win the mayoral race, having consistently led by double digits in polls. Despite this, opposition forces have intensified their efforts, including President Trump’s endorsement of his former adversary, ex-New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, over Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa. Trump urged his supporters to back Cuomo on Monday night.
Critics of Mamdani have long suggested Sliwa withdraw to consolidate the anti-Mamdani vote. While the 50% mark is an artificial guidepost, polling indicates that not all Sliwa supporters would have shifted to Cuomo in a two-person contest, suggesting Mamdani’s strong position regardless.
Voter Response to Rhetoric
The Virginia attorney general’s race is being closely watched for a potential message from voters regarding violent rhetoric in politics. Republican incumbent Jason Miyares is in a competitive race against Democratic former state Delegate Jay Jones, largely due to Jones’ recently unearthed violent text messages, which suggested a political opponent’s children should die.
Polls indicate a significant gap between this race and the top of the ticket; for example, a Washington Post-Schar School poll showed the Democratic gubernatorial candidate leading by 12 points, while Jones was tied with Miyares. If this gap materializes and especially if Jones loses, it would send a strong signal about voters’ tolerance for such rhetoric, particularly in the aftermath of high-profile incidents of political violence.
Impact of the Federal Shutdown
The federal government shutdown, poised to become the longest in history, has been a relatively minor subplot in these elections, even in Virginia, which is home to many federal workers. Therefore, these results may not offer major clues about the shutdown’s political impact. However, the outcomes could still influence future shutdown negotiations.
If Democrats underperform, they might reconsider their strategy, fearing they have overplayed their hand. Conversely, a strong Democratic showing could embolden them to continue pushing for their demands, such as an extension of enhanced Obamacare subsidies. Polling suggests Americans are more likely to blame Republicans for the shutdown, which has bolstered Democratic confidence in their approach.
Key Gubernatorial Stakes
While not garnering the same attention as other races, California’s Proposition 50 and Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court retention elections are significant for two ambitious Democratic governors: Gavin Newsom of California and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, both considered potential 2028 presidential contenders.
In California, Proposition 50, a redistricting ballot initiative launched by Governor Newsom to offset Republican efforts in Texas, appears to be a triumph. Despite concerns about asking voters for permission to gerrymander, Republicans seem to have abandoned efforts to defeat the measure. A large margin of victory for Prop 50 would further elevate Newsom’s national standing. In Pennsylvania, Governor Shapiro has invested considerable political capital in securing new 10-year terms for three Democratic state Supreme Court justices, which typically succeed but have faced strong Republican opposition, including a recent endorsement from Trump. The margins in these retention votes will be closely scrutinized for their reflection on Shapiro’s political influence.
