Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Standard Chartered Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick has advised Bitcoin traders to “buy the dip, in stages,” following the cryptocurrency’s recent drop below $100,000. Kendrick’s strategy involves a phased approach to investment, suggesting that the current dip might be the last opportunity to acquire Bitcoin at this price point. This recommendation comes amidst a significant divergence in performance between Bitcoin and gold, with the latter showing substantial gains this year.
Bitcoin Investment Strategy
Kendrick’s proposed strategy for traders looking to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price movements outlines three distinct stages for investment. He advises an initial purchase of 25% of a trader’s maximum intended Bitcoin investment immediately, citing the possibility that the recent dip below $100,000 could be a unique buying opportunity.
The second stage involves buying an additional 25% if Bitcoin’s closing price on Friday surpasses $103,000. The final 50% of the investment should be deployed if and when the Bitcoin-gold ratio climbs back above 30, a key metric for evaluating Bitcoin’s relative value against the precious metal.
Bitcoin-Gold Ratio and Market Performance
The Bitcoin-gold ratio, currently at 25, has seen a notable decline from its peak of 38.6 on January 5, 2025, and a near-retest of 36.5 in August. This drop is largely attributed to a sustained rally in gold prices, which have surged by 66.5% since the beginning of the year. In contrast, Bitcoin’s recent price volatility has left it with a more modest 10.5% gain over the same period.
Market sentiment, particularly among users on Myriad, indicates a strong belief that gold will continue to outperform Bitcoin this year, with an 82% probability assigned to this outcome. This divergence highlights the challenges Bitcoin faces in catching up to the precious metal’s recent performance.
Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown
Analysts suggest that the ongoing, record-long U.S. government shutdown has significantly impacted the cryptocurrency market by diverting institutional liquidity. This siphoning of cash has reduced the funds available for deployment in various financial instruments, including cryptocurrencies, equities, and lending markets.
However, analysts from BitMEX anticipate a rapid recovery and a “strong relief rally” once the shutdown concludes and the U.S. Treasury resumes spending. This expected rebound is seen as aligning with Bitcoin’s historical year-end seasonal strength, potentially offering a favorable environment for investors.
