Finance

Will Bitcoin Rebound? Fundstrat’s Tom Lee Unpacks Macro Headwinds and Predicts a Crypto Comeback

Tom Lee sees potential Bitcoin rebound despite macroeconomic pressures and recent sell-off.

byAndres Castro

November 6, 2025, 11:01 AM

Businessman jumping from a large spring toward a Bitcoin symbol atop a flight of stairs.

A businessman uses a spring to propel himself toward the Bitcoin symbol, representing a market rebound. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin’s recent drop below its 200-day moving average was primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds like the U.S. government shutdown, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a historic deleveraging event on October 10th.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee suggests these macroeconomic pressures could soon reverse, potentially fueling a rebound for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

A potential rebound is supported by the expected resolution of economic pressures, positive broader financial market indicators, and optimistic retail sentiment visible in prediction markets.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s recent decline was primarily driven by macroeconomic headwinds, including a U.S. government shutdown, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and U.S. dollar strength, all of which reduced market liquidity and risk appetite, further exacerbated by the lingering ripple effects of a historic deleveraging event on October 10th.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin’s recent decline, driven by macroeconomic headwinds like a hawkish Federal Reserve, a U.S. government shutdown, and a historic deleveraging event, highlights the cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to broader financial conditions. However, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee suggests these pressures could soon reverse, potentially fueling a rebound as economic issues resolve and broader market indicators signal a positive outlook for digital assets.

Who Thinks What?

Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes Bitcoin’s recent drop was driven by macroeconomic headwinds such as the U.S. government shutdown, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a historic deleveraging event, but he anticipates these pressures will soon reverse, potentially fueling a rebound for the cryptocurrency.

Users on prediction markets like Myriad indicate a strong probability (64%) that Bitcoin will revisit $115,000 before falling to $85,000, and a similar chance (63%) for Ethereum to reach $4,500 before dropping to $2,500, suggesting an expectation of an initial upward movement.

Bitcoin’s recent drop below a critical technical level was primarily driven by a series of macroeconomic headwinds, according to Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Despite this downturn, Lee suggests these pressures could soon reverse, potentially fueling a rebound for the leading cryptocurrency.

Macroeconomic Pressures and Deleveraging

Lee attributed Bitcoin’s decline, which saw it break below its 200-day moving average, to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and a hawkish Federal Reserve. He emphasized that Bitcoin’s price is highly sensitive to market liquidity and overall risk appetite. This sentiment aligns with other market experts who have highlighted U.S. dollar strength as a significant macro headwind for digital assets.

The analyst also pointed to the October 10th deleveraging event, which he described as the largest in crypto history. This massive unwinding has created ongoing ripple effects, suggesting that the market will require additional time for confidence to fully recover.

Outlook for a Potential Rebound

Despite the recent sell-off and technical weakness, Lee maintained an optimistic stance, suggesting that these current “headwinds become tailwinds” as underlying issues are resolved. He highlighted that broader financial market indicators are signaling a positive outlook, noting that historically, six consecutive months of stock market gains often precede a flat or positive November.

This potential for a rebound is further supported by retail sentiment visible in prediction markets. For instance, users on Myriad indicate a 64% chance that Bitcoin will revisit $115,000 before falling to $85,000. Similarly, there is a 63% chance assigned to Ethereum hitting $4,500 before dropping to $2,500.

Current Market Snapshot

Following a bruising sell-off, the crypto market has shown tentative signs of recovery, with Bitcoin bouncing from an intraday low of $99,600 to trade around $103,400. Bitcoin and Ethereum were recently up 1.3% and 2.6% respectively over a 24-hour period, trading at approximately $103,214 and $3,403.

Key Takeaways

While Bitcoin has faced significant pressure from macroeconomic factors and a historic deleveraging event, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes a market reversal is possible. His analysis suggests that the resolution of these economic pressures, coupled with positive broader financial trends, could pave the way for a cryptocurrency rebound in the near future.