Finance

Can Bitcoin Break Free? Experts Weigh in on Q4 Rebound Amidst Macro Headwinds

Bitcoin faces a sideways trend, needing a 10% rebound to reach its quarterly breakeven.

byAndres Castro

November 7, 2025, 8:16 AM

Close-up of a golden Bitcoin coin against a vibrant purple and pink upward-trending line graph.

A physical Bitcoin coin is centered against a vibrant line graph suggesting an upward market trend. By MDL.

Executive Summary

Bitcoin is currently in a sideways trend following a selloff, requiring a 10% rebound to reach its quarterly breakeven price of $114,000.

The recent downturn is attributed to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S.-China trade war, potential government shutdown, diminished liquidity, and systemic risks like institutional defaults.

Experts remain optimistic for a positive close to the year, contingent on contained inflation, improved liquidity, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker U.S. dollar, long-term holder accumulation, and increasing Bitcoin ETF inflows.

The Story So Far

Bitcoin’s recent selloff and sideways trend are largely attributed to a prevailing “risk-off” sentiment in the market, driven by significant macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and the potential for a government shutdown, alongside diminished liquidity within the crypto ecosystem and concerns over potential systemic institutional defaults.

Why This Matters

Bitcoin’s current struggle with a sideways trend and recent selloff underscores its significant susceptibility to broader macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including U.S.-China trade tensions and potential government shutdowns, which are dampening overall market risk appetite. Despite these headwinds and lingering concerns over diminished liquidity and potential institutional defaults, experts maintain cautious optimism for a positive year-end close, contingent on improvements in inflation data, increased liquidity, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, indicating that external economic shifts will largely dictate Bitcoin’s immediate future and its capacity for recovery.

Who Thinks What?

Many market experts remain optimistic that Bitcoin can achieve a positive finish for the fourth quarter, despite a recent 20% drop and sideways trend, contingent on shifts in macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity.

Analysts like Daniel Liu and Adam Chu attribute the current market hesitation to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including the U.S.-China trade war, potential government shutdown, diminished liquidity, and the risk of unseen institutional defaults.

Ryan Lee and Tom Lee suggest that a strong Q4 close is achievable if inflation data remains contained, liquidity improves, the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the U.S. dollar weakens, and long-term holder accumulation and ETF inflows continue.

Bitcoin is grappling with a sideways trend following a recent selloff, with the cryptocurrency needing at least a 10% rebound to reach its quarterly breakeven price of $114,000. Despite a 20% drop from its record high of $126,080, market experts largely remain optimistic, suggesting that a positive finish for the fourth quarter is still achievable, contingent on shifts in macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity.

Market Dynamics and Recent Performance

The top cryptocurrency’s recent downturn was exacerbated by an October crash, which triggered $19 billion in liquidations. This “risk-off” sentiment has persisted into November, contributing to a 15% decline in Bitcoin’s performance over the past month. Traditional markets, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq, have experienced similar pressures, with the index down approximately 3.4% in the last seven days.

Expert Outlook and Macro Factors

Analysts attribute the current market hesitation to a confluence of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies, pointed to the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and the potential for a government shutdown as significant influences on risk assets, including crypto. Adam Chu, chief researcher at GreeksLive, highlighted diminished liquidity and crypto options data suggesting a range-bound market, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a definitive advantage.

Chu also cautioned about systemic risks, noting that “unseen institutional defaults could strike at any moment” and that recent defaults in DeFi and stablecoins might foreshadow a broader crisis. Popular market analyst Tom Lee, Co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, suggested that while Bitcoin recently broke below its 200-day moving average due to macroeconomic headwinds, these pressures could reverse and fuel a rebound.

Path to a Positive Close

Despite current challenges, experts maintain that Bitcoin can still achieve a positive close to the year. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, emphasized that if inflation data remains contained and liquidity improves, Bitcoin could indeed end the fourth quarter strongly. Key drivers for such a turnaround include potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker U.S. dollar, which could enhance risk appetite across markets.

Further bolstering confidence, Lee noted, are signs of long-term holder accumulation and increasing inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These factors collectively present a viable path for the cryptocurrency to overcome its recent struggles and conclude the year in positive territory.