Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Ethereum (ETH) has initiated a new downtrend from the $3,480 mark, struggling to maintain a positive trajectory and now faces the risk of further declines below the $3,250 support level. The cryptocurrency’s price has fallen below $3,400 and is currently trading beneath its 100-hourly Simple Moving Average, indicating a strong bearish sentiment in the market.
Recent Price Action
The latest downturn saw Ethereum fail to sustain a positive zone, mirroring Bitcoin’s recent price movements, and subsequently declined below the $3,420 and $3,400 thresholds. Bears appear to have successfully defended the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $3,920 swing high to the $3,058 low, preventing a meaningful recovery.
A new bearish trend line has also emerged on the hourly ETH/USD chart, establishing resistance near $3,380. Should another recovery attempt materialize, ETH could encounter immediate resistance around the $3,350 level, followed by the more significant $3,380 trend line.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
For Ethereum to reverse its current bearish trend, it would need a clear breakthrough above the $3,480 resistance mark, which could potentially propel it towards the $3,580 level, coinciding with the 61.8% Fib retracement. Sustained upward momentum past $3,580 might lead to further gains, targeting the $3,650 or even $3,675 zones in the near term.
Conversely, if ETH fails to overcome the $3,380 resistance, it is poised for further declines. Initial support is anticipated near $3,250, with a major support zone identified around $3,220. A definitive move below $3,220 could push the price towards $3,150, and potentially test the $3,050, $3,020, and $3,000 regions.
Technical Indicators
Technical indicators are reinforcing the bearish outlook. The Hourly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETH/USD is showing increasing momentum within the bearish zone. Similarly, the Hourly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for ETH/USD has dropped below the 50 mark, signaling prevailing selling pressure.
Outlook
Ethereum remains under significant bearish pressure, with key technical indicators pointing towards further downside risk if it fails to clear critical resistance levels. Traders will be watching the $3,380 and $3,250 levels closely for signs of either a potential recovery or a deeper decline.
