Politics

Trump’s Hungary Energy Sanctions Exemption: How This Move Could Impact US Policy and Russia’s War

Trump granted Hungary a year-long exemption from Russian energy sanctions to ease economic impact.

November 7, 2025, 8:27 PM

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, wearing a dark suit and orange tie, looks forward at a press event in Brussels.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán poses for a photo during the NATO Extraordinary Summit in Brussels, Belgium, on March 24, 2022. By Gints Ivuskans / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

President Donald Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions, aiming to mitigate the economic impact on the heavily reliant nation.

Hungary’s dependence on Russian crude oil has significantly increased to 92% this year, making it one of the few EU countries still receiving oil directly from Russia.

The exemption raises concerns among analysts about potentially undermining the effectiveness of US sanctions on Russia and encouraging other nations to seek ways to circumvent them.

The Story So Far

Hungary’s deep and increasing reliance on Russian energy, which has intensified since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, makes it one of the few EU nations still heavily dependent on these imports, a situation Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has consistently warned would severely damage the country’s economy if supplies were cut. This challenge, alongside a strong political alignment between Orbán and President Trump, who Orbán has praised for improving US-Hungary relations, provides the context for the granted energy sanctions exemption.

Why This Matters

President Trump’s decision to grant Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions risks undermining the consistency and effectiveness of international pressure on Russia, potentially encouraging other nations to seek similar carve-outs. This move also allows Hungary to maintain its deep reliance on Russian fossil fuels, diverging from broader European efforts to diversify energy sources, and signals a potential shift in future US foreign policy that could prioritize the economic stability of certain allies over strict adherence to sanctions regimes.

Who Thinks What?

President Trump granted Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions, acknowledging Hungary’s heavy reliance on Russian energy imports and the “difficult” situation it faces in weaning off them, aiming to mitigate economic impact for an ally.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán sought and welcomed the exemption, arguing that cutting Russia’s energy supplies would severely damage Hungary’s economy given its increasing dependence on Russian crude oil, and sees the move as improving US-Hungary relations.

Analysts and critics express concern that granting exceptions like Hungary’s could undermine the effectiveness of US sanctions on Russia, encourage other nations to seek ways to circumvent them, and raises questions about the commitment to enforcing such sanctions.

President Donald Trump has granted Hungary a one-year exemption from Russian energy sanctions, a move confirmed by a White House official to CNN. The decision, following a meeting between Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday, aims to mitigate the economic impact on Hungary, which relies heavily on Russian energy imports.

The exemption softens the effect of recent US sanctions targeting Russian oil exports. Trump had previously criticized European Union countries for their continued purchases of Russian oil and gas, arguing that such transactions fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.

During Orbán’s visit to the White House, Trump praised the Hungarian leader, acknowledging the “difficult” situation Hungary faces as a landlocked nation in weaning itself off Russian fossil fuels. Orbán had previously warned Trump that cutting Russia’s energy supplies would severely damage Hungary’s economy.

The carve-out for Hungary has raised questions among analysts regarding the Trump administration’s commitment to enforcing its sanctions on Russia’s oil exports. There are concerns that granting exceptions to allies could encourage other nations to seek ways to circumvent US sanctions, potentially undermining their effectiveness in pressuring Russia.

Hungary’s Reliance on Russian Energy

Hungary, along with Slovakia, remains one of the only EU countries that continues to receive oil directly from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the EU granted an exemption to these countries, along with the Czech Republic, due to their significant reliance on Russian imports, allowing time to reduce dependence.

Despite this grace period, Hungary and Slovakia have reportedly deepened their reliance. Hungary’s dependence on Russian crude oil increased from 61% before the invasion to 86% in 2024, reaching 92% this year. Slovakia is reported to be “almost 100% dependent” on Russian crude oil, according to a report from the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The report suggests that phasing out Russian oil is “fully feasible” for both Hungary and Slovakia, citing the Adria pipeline in Croatia as capable of meeting their combined needs. However, Orbán has disputed this, claiming the Croatian government would need to enlarge the pipeline to accommodate Hungary’s requirements.

While EU countries have reduced overall Russian gas imports, Hungary and Slovakia opposed a recent agreement by EU nations to ban all Russian gas imports from 2028.

Political Alignment and Diplomatic Implications

Orbán, a figure popular among conservative movements globally, has adopted talking points that resonate with Trump, characterizing Hungary as a “Christian” nation and a “special island of difference in a liberal ocean in Europe.” He also lauded Trump for improving US-Hungary relations, which he suggested were strained under the Biden administration due to sanctions imposed over democratic backsliding.

The Trump administration has since removed some of these sanctions. Orbán expressed hope for a “golden age” in US-Hungary relations and indicated that Trump’s team was discussing a potential summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, an idea previously floated and then shelved.

The Atlantic Council, in an analysis preceding the meeting, had advised the White House to recognize Orbán’s role as a “roadblock” to US demands from Europe despite their close relationship.

Outlook on Sanctions Policy

The one-year exemption granted to Hungary underscores a complex dynamic in US sanctions policy, balancing geopolitical pressure on Russia with the economic realities of key allies. The decision highlights the ongoing debate about the consistency and efficacy of international sanctions regimes, particularly when confronted with the energy security concerns of individual nations.