Finance

Can the U.S. Government Shutdown End? How Markets Reacted to the Senate’s Vote and What Investors Need to Know

Global shares rose on hopes of ending the U.S. shutdown, though political hurdles could limit market gains.

November 9, 2025, 10:31 PM

Stock trader in a navy jacket intently watching multiple financial charts at the NYSE.

A stock trader intently monitors multiple screens displaying financial charts at the New York Stock Exchange. By orhan akkurt / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

Global shares, including U.S. futures and Asian markets, gained significantly due to optimism about a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown.

The U.S. Senate is reportedly moving towards a vote on reopening the federal government, but potential opposition from the House of Representatives casts a shadow on a swift resolution, with the shutdown already taking a significant economic toll.

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, the dollar recovered against the yen, and commodity prices like Brent crude and spot gold also saw an uptick.

The Story So Far

Global markets are reacting to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has become the longest in history, significantly impacting the economy by leaving federal workers unpaid, threatening GDP growth, and dampening consumer sentiment. The current market optimism is driven by reports that the U.S. Senate is moving towards a vote to reopen the federal government, though potential opposition from the House of Representatives suggests a swift and clear resolution is not yet guaranteed.

Why This Matters

The mere prospect of the U.S. government shutdown ending is driving immediate global market gains and boosting investor confidence, yet the prolonged stoppage has already inflicted significant economic damage, including potential negative fourth-quarter GDP and slumping consumer sentiment. This indicates that while a resolution would bring short-term relief, it may not fully reverse the growth dent, and continued political hurdles suggest “headline-driven volatility” is likely to persist until a definitive agreement is reached.

Who Thinks What?

Global markets and investors are optimistic that the protracted U.S. government shutdown might be nearing an end, driving gains in global shares, U.S. futures, Asian markets, European markets, U.S. Treasury yields, and commodity prices.

Analysts like Charu Chanana and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett caution that while markets might experience short-term relief, headline-driven volatility is likely to continue until a clear resolution, and the ongoing shutdown has already significantly damaged the economy, potentially leading to negative fourth-quarter GDP and slumped consumer sentiment.

Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives have signaled opposition to the Senate’s potential deal to reopen the government, casting a shadow on a swift and clear resolution to the shutdown.

Global shares, including U.S. futures and Asian markets, gained on Monday, November 10, driven by optimism that the protracted U.S. government shutdown might be nearing an end. The U.S. Senate is reportedly moving towards a vote on reopening the federal government, although potential opposition from the House of Representatives casts a shadow on a swift resolution.

Market Performance

In early trade, Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5%. Across Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan increased by 0.5%, and Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.6%. European markets also showed strength, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures each up 1.3%, and South Korea’s Kospi recording a 2% gain.

Political Developments and Economic Outlook

The U.S. Senate’s movement towards a vote on reopening the federal government followed bipartisan talks described as taking a “positive turn” by Senate Majority Leader John Thune. However, Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, cautioned that while markets might experience short-term relief, “headline-driven volatility is likely to continue until there’s a clear resolution,” given Democratic leaders in the House have already signaled opposition to the Senate’s potential deal.

The ongoing shutdown, which has become the longest in U.S. history, has taken a significant toll on the economy. Federal workers, including those in law enforcement and the military, have gone unpaid, and the central bank has faced challenges due to limited government reporting. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett stated in an interview that the nation’s fourth-quarter GDP could turn negative if the shutdown persists. Additionally, U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November, reflecting household concerns over the economic fallout.

Treasury Yields and Currencies

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing 3.5 basis points to 4.1278%, and the two-year yield rising approximately 3 basis points to 3.5886%. In currency markets, the dollar recovered some of its prior losses, gaining 0.28% against the yen to trade at 153.87. Conversely, the euro was down 0.13% at $1.1551, and sterling fell 0.17% to $1.3142. This movement occurred as investors assessed the U.S. economic outlook against a Federal Reserve that has maintained a more hawkish stance on future rate cuts, despite recent data suggesting a weakening labor market.

Commodity Markets

Commodity prices also saw an uptick. Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $63.89 per barrel, while U.S. crude edged 0.45% higher to $60.01 a barrel. Spot gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, increased 0.6% to $4,023.40 an ounce.

Overall market sentiment remained upbeat on Monday, largely driven by the prospect of an end to the U.S. government shutdown. However, analysts suggest that while a resolution would restore confidence, it may not fully reverse the growth dent caused by the prolonged stoppage, with political hurdles still remaining.