Executive Summary
- The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended with a Senate deal on November 9, 2025, after moderate Democrats abandoned their demand for guaranteed Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidy extensions.
- The compromise ignited a significant backlash from progressive Democrats, who accused moderate colleagues of caving to Trump and neglecting millions facing rising health care premiums, exposing deep divisions within the party.
- While Trump achieved his immediate objective by not bending to Democratic pressure, the shutdown highlighted his perceived indifference to Americans’ struggles and left Republicans on the hook for future decisions regarding Obamacare subsidies.
The Story So Far
- The longest government shutdown in U.S. history was precipitated by the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, leading to skyrocketing premiums and prompting Democrats to withhold government funding in an effort to force their extension. This political standoff was a direct result of Democratic demands for more affordable healthcare and President Trump’s resistance to those demands, escalating into a national crisis that ultimately led moderate Democrats to compromise to reopen the federal government.
Why This Matters
- The resolution of the longest government shutdown, while ending immediate disruptions, has exposed deep divisions within the Democratic Party, with progressives criticizing moderates for compromising on health care affordability and potentially undermining their electoral messaging. Simultaneously, the impasse inflicted political costs on Trump, whose perceived indifference to the crisis and the Republican Party’s lack of a clear plan for rising health care costs could become a significant liability in future elections, despite Trump achieving his immediate goal of not caving to demands.
Who Thinks What?
- Progressive Democrats view the compromise as a significant failure, accusing moderates of caving to President Donald Trump and neglecting millions facing rising healthcare premiums, warning it risks a “policy and political disaster.”
- Moderate and pragmatic Democrats supported the deal, citing the escalating human cost of the shutdown, the importance of guaranteeing back pay for federal workers, and the strategic benefit of forcing a future Senate vote on ACA subsidies that would make Republicans take a public stance.
- President Donald Trump achieved his immediate objective by not bending to Democratic pressure on health care while the government was closed, maintaining his stance against negotiating during the shutdown.
The longest government shutdown in U.S. history appears on the verge of resolution following a late-night Senate deal on Sunday, November 9, 2025. The breakthrough occurred after a group of moderate Democrats abandoned their key demand for a guaranteed extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. Eight Democratic senators ultimately voted to break a filibuster, clearing a critical procedural hurdle to reopen the federal government after nearly six weeks of halted operations.
Democratic Unity Fractures Over Compromise
The agreement, however, has ignited a significant backlash from progressive Democrats, who accuse their moderate colleagues of caving to President Donald Trump and neglecting millions of Americans facing rising health care premiums. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a leading progressive, voiced strong opposition on X, stating she would not support a deal that fails to make health care more affordable, calling a vote for the bill “a mistake” amidst a “health care emergency.”
The shutdown, which began in early October, was precipitated by the expiration of enhanced subsidies for ACA plans, leading to skyrocketing prices for consumers. While the crisis caused widespread disruption, including cuts to food benefits, unpaid federal workers, and aviation safety concerns, it also served as a politically charged battleground influencing perceptions of Trump’s presidency and the Democratic Party’s trajectory.
The Senate deal proposes a vote on ACA subsidies in December, but it does not guarantee their extension. It funds the government through January 30, guarantees back pay for furloughed federal workers, reverses federal employee firings made during the impasse, and secures food stamp funding through 2026. The Republican-led House must still be recalled to vote on the measure after it clears the Senate’s procedural steps.
A “Political Disaster” for Democrats?
From the perspective of many progressives, the compromise represents a significant failure for Democrats, who initiated the shutdown by withholding votes from a government funding bill. They argue the party failed to secure its primary objective of extending Obamacare subsidies, despite insisting it was their bottom line. Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, warned the compromise risked “a policy and political disaster,” calling it a “horrific mistake to cave in to Trump right now.”
This concession comes despite recent Democratic victories in state and local elections, which many party leaders attributed to candidates effectively campaigning on the cost of living and health care. Polls during the shutdown largely indicated that voters blamed Trump, aligning with the Democratic position. The deal is exposing deep divisions within the party, challenging the “big tent” narrative often cited after recent electoral successes.
Notable Democratic figures expressed their dismay. Arizona Senator Ruben Gallego voted against the resolution, citing concerns for Americans facing sharply rising premiums. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer did not vote for the deal, though Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the party’s second-ranking leader and a retiring member, supported it.
Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who also voted for the deal, highlighted the importance of guaranteed pay for federal workers in his state. He also argued that a future Senate vote on ACA subsidies would force Republicans to take a public stance, potentially impacting their electoral prospects.
Pragmatic Considerations Amidst Growing Crisis
A more pragmatic view acknowledges the escalating human cost of the shutdown, which was rapidly becoming a national crisis. Some Democrats, like Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, had consistently opposed the shutdown, arguing that little had been accomplished beyond chaos and upheaval. Democratic leaders faced immense pressure from their base following the 2024 election loss but also had to weigh the achievability of their demands against the deepening pain.
Despite the concessions, Democrats may still accrue political benefits. Polls consistently showed Americans blamed President Trump and the Republican Party for the shutdown, contributing to a slump in his approval ratings. Trump was often portrayed as indifferent to the struggles of millions, particularly after his administration fought court orders to restore food assistance funding.
The shutdown also highlighted the Democrats’ limited power in Washington, where they leveraged their ability to withhold votes in the Senate to push back against a president often perceived as unwilling to compromise. As the shutdown’s consequences worsened, including potential Thanksgiving travel chaos, some moderates likely concluded that continuing the impasse risked losing any incremental political gains if public opinion ultimately turned against them.
Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen, who supported the compromise, stated that President Trump and Washington Republicans were “weaponizing their power” to inflict suffering, citing the withholding of SNAP benefits and disruption to air travel. Regardless of the internal Democratic recriminations, the shutdown successfully elevated the exploding cost of health care as a core issue, one for which the Republican Party currently lacks a viable solution.
Trump’s Stance and Lingering Political Costs
While the immediate impact on the 2026 midterm elections may be limited given the fast-paced nature of Trump’s presidency, he arguably achieved his immediate objective: he did not bend to Democratic pressure. Trump, known for his self-image as a winner, maintained his stance of not negotiating on health care while the government was closed.
However, the political cost for Trump could be significant. His perceived callousness and indifference to the daily struggles of millions of Americans, exemplified by his administration’s fight against food stamp benefits and his weekend activities in Florida during the crisis, may leave a lasting impression. Republicans also remain on the hook regarding the enhanced Obamacare subsidies, facing a difficult political decision if they allow them to expire ahead of midterm elections.
The shutdown further exposed existing divisions within the Republican Party, notably highlighted by Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor-Greene’s criticism of the party’s health care policies. It also revealed rare instances where Trump’s authority over his party on Capitol Hill was not absolute, as Republican senators ignored his demands to abolish the filibuster, signaling a potential future where his dominance within the GOP may wane.
