Executive Summary
- Sales and Prices Fall: October home sales in the GTA dropped 9.5% year-over-year, while the average selling price decreased by 7.2% to $1,054,372.
- Inventory Surges: Active listings rose by 17.2%, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to 38% and solidifying the region as a buyer’s market.
- Buyer Hesitation Persists: Despite more favorable conditions, many buyers are remaining on the sidelines due to economic uncertainty and a lack of urgency.
- National Trend: Toronto’s slowdown reflects a wider Canadian trend, with RBC Economics noting that local resales are approximately 25% below pre-pandemic levels.
The Toronto housing market showed no signs of a rebound in October, as home sales and prices continued to decline while the number of available properties climbed, according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). The figures indicate a persistent buyer’s market where cautious purchasers have more options but little motivation to act quickly.
In October, home sales in the Greater Toronto Area dropped by 9.5% year-over-year, with 6,138 transactions recorded. Concurrently, active listings surged by 17.2% to 27,808. This increase in supply and decrease in demand pushed the average selling price down by 7.2% compared to last year, settling at $1,054,372. The sales-to-new-listings ratio was approximately 38%, well below the 50% mark that typically signals a balanced market.
Price drops were observed across different property types. The average price for a detached home saw a 7.3% decline to $1,355,506, while condominium apartments experienced a 4.7% decrease to an average of $660,208. According to Taz Zaide, a mortgage agent at 6ix Mortgage Group, recent appraisals for properties purchased over the summer are coming in lower, giving current buyers a distinct advantage as sellers grow more concerned about future market direction.
This cooling trend in Toronto is consistent with broader national patterns. An analysis by RBC Economics noted that home resales in the Toronto area have been running approximately 25% below pre-pandemic norms for the past three months. The report cited factors such as economic uncertainty, shifting job prospects, and high inventory levels as reasons for the subdued activity, a trend also seen in cities like Edmonton, Regina, and Winnipeg.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain flat. Zaide advised that prospective buyers should base their decisions on personal financial comfort rather than trying to time the market amid the current uncertainty. With ample supply and persistent economic headwinds, Toronto’s real estate market appears positioned for a prolonged period of stagnation, leaving buyers in control but largely hesitant to enter the market.
