Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea on October 31, 2025, signaling a significant warming of ties between the two nations, a development experts attribute to President Donald Trump’s escalating trade disputes with Ottawa. This rapprochement comes after years of diplomatic strain, as Canada increasingly views the United States as its primary economic threat.
A Diplomatic Thaw
The recent handshake between Carney and Xi marked the first meeting of leaders from both countries in eight years, a stark contrast to the period following the 2018 arrest of Chinese technology executive Meng Wanzhou in Canada. That incident led to Beijing’s detention of two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, severely souring diplomatic relations for years.
The shift began in early October with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand’s visit to Beijing, followed by the leaders’ 40-minute discussion at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit. Both nations pledged to improve ties and collaborate on trade, with Canada’s statement calling the meeting a “turning point” and indicating a future visit by Carney to China.
Further ministerial visits and high-level phone calls have ensued, alongside China reinstating Canada to its approved travel list for tour groups, signaling a boost for Canadian tourism. This diplomatic thaw contrasts with the ongoing economic friction between the two, including Canadian tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and Chinese retaliatory tariffs on Canadian agricultural products like canola.
Economic Pressures and Strategic Realignment
Simultaneously, President Trump has intensified economic pressure on Ottawa, abruptly halting trade talks last month following a controversial anti-tariff advertisement by Ontario. This has led many to perceive the United States as Canada’s most significant economic challenge, making closer ties with China a strategic imperative for Ottawa.
Experts warn that China may be leveraging Canada’s vulnerability to drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington. Michael Kovrig, a senior adviser for the Crisis Group who was previously detained in China, suggested Beijing aims to prevent a “strong and united West” from constraining its global ambitions.
Lynette Ong, director of the China Governance Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, described Canada’s recent tone towards China as a “180-degree shift,” born out of economic necessity. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, a vocal critic of Trump, has openly called for Canada to improve its relationship with China, reportedly stating, “President Trump himself is acting like the enemy.”
Public opinion in Canada appears to reflect this sentiment, with recent polling indicating that 46% of Canadians view the U.S. as a threat, compared to 34% for China, despite generally negative views of Beijing. Fen Hampson, a professor at Carleton University, noted that being shut out of a major export market compels Canada to seek “other dance partners.”
Geopolitical Implications
This complex geopolitical maneuver presents Canada with a “Rubik’s cube,” as aligning with Beijing could further isolate Washington. The situation underscores the broader implications of U.S. trade policy, with experts cautioning the White House to consider how its actions might push allies to hedge their bets with geopolitical rivals.
