Executive Summary
- U.S. pending home sales fell 0.3% year-over-year for the four weeks ending November 9, the first decline recorded in four months.
- Homes are taking a median of 49 days to go under contract, the longest duration for this period of the year since 2019.
- The median home-sale price rose 2.4% to $393,700, while new listings for sale increased by 3.4% from the previous year.
- Economic uncertainty, including a government shutdown, has led over 20% of Americans to delay major purchases like homes, according to a Redfin survey.
U.S. pending home sales experienced a slight downturn, falling 0.3% year-over-year during the four-week period ending November 9, marking the first such decline in four months. This shift reflects growing hesitancy among prospective buyers who are contending with elevated housing costs, fluctuating mortgage rates, and broader economic uncertainty. Properties that are selling are also remaining on the market longer, with the median time to go under contract reaching 49 days, the longest for this time of year since 2019.
Key Market Pressures
Several factors are contributing to the cautious market sentiment. The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% after reaching a yearly low the prior week. Simultaneously, the median home-sale price increased by 2.4% compared to the previous year, the most significant jump in six months, now standing at $393,700. Economic instability is also a major concern, with a recent Redfin survey indicating that over 20% of Americans are delaying major purchases, including homes, due to the government shutdown.
Seller and Agent Perspectives
While buyer demand has softened, the supply side shows more activity. New listings of homes for sale were up 3.4% year-over-year, contributing to a 6.3% increase in total active listings. According to Redfin Premier agent W.J. Eulberg in Milwaukee, many house hunters are waiting for mortgage rates to fall below 6% before committing. “If mortgage rates come down significantly, there will be more bidding wars,” Eulberg noted, suggesting that current buyers may benefit from lower competition and seller willingness to negotiate on price or offer concessions.
National Housing Market Overview
Nationally, the median monthly mortgage payment was $2,495, a 1.9% decrease from a year ago and the lowest level since the start of the year. However, other metrics point to a cooler market. The share of homes selling above list price fell to 22.8% from 25% a year earlier, and the average sale-to-list price ratio dipped to 98.3%. At the metro level, Philadelphia saw the largest year-over-year median sale price increase at 9.8%, while Dallas experienced the most significant decrease at -4.5%. Pending sales grew most in West Palm Beach, FL (21.8%), but fell sharply in Seattle (-19.2%).
