Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
The US stock market experienced a sharp decline on November 13, 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all falling significantly, primarily driven by a sell-off in technology shares. This market downturn coincided with a notable drop in Bitcoin’s price below $96,000, as investor sentiment weakened amidst reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and concerning economic data from China.
Market Performance and Tech Sell-Off
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 47,239, while the S&P 500 dropped nearly 1%. The Nasdaq 100 recorded about a 1.5% decline, marking a continuation of a steep drop from the previous trading day. Technology stocks were at the forefront of the sell-off, with Tesla shares falling 4% to break below $400, following a 6.6% drop on Thursday. Nvidia also saw a 3% decline after its previous day’s losses, as investors re-evaluated high-valuation AI leaders.
Shifting Fed Expectations and Inflation Concerns
Market sentiment worsened as confidence in a December interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished. Traders now assign less than a 50% probability to a quarter-point cut next month, a significant reduction from the 95% odds seen just a month prior. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari contributed to these concerns by highlighting strong economic resilience and persistent inflation pressures. Furthermore, data gaps resulting from a six-week US government shutdown have left policymakers uncertain about the true state of inflation and the labor market.
Bitcoin Plunges Amid Risk-Off Mood
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 for the first time in over six months, having lost more than 20% from its October peak. Analysts suggest the cryptocurrency market has entered a confirmed bear phase, with long-term holders selling over 815,000 BTC, valued at nearly $79 billion, in the past month. This marks the largest long-horizon selloff since early 2024. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a $278 million outflow on November 13, adding to a volatile week, while a negative Coinbase premium signaled weak US retail sentiment.
China’s Economic Slowdown Weighs on Global Markets
Weak global signals further impacted risk sentiment, particularly from China. Retail sales in October rose only 2.9%, the slowest pace since last year, and industrial production increased by 4.9%, the smallest gain since January. Fixed-asset investment also dropped 1.7% year over year. US-listed Chinese stocks reacted negatively to this slowdown, with Alibaba slipping 1.6%, JD.com falling 3.4%, and XPeng dropping 5.8%.
Washington Uncertainty and Tariff Plans
The six-week US government shutdown has created significant gaps in economic data, contributing to market uncertainty regarding inflation progress. Separately, President Trump is reportedly preparing major tariff cuts aimed at reducing food costs. These deals with Latin American nations, including Argentina and Brazil, are intended to lower prices for essentials like bananas and coffee, as the White House addresses inflation as a primary voter concern ahead of the next policy cycle.
Market Outlook
The current market fragility reflects a confluence of factors, including shifting monetary policy expectations, global economic uncertainties, and domestic policy concerns. Investors are bracing for continued volatility as they navigate these complex dynamics, with key resistance and support levels for Bitcoin being closely watched.
