Executive Summary
- Open Seat: The Texas Attorney General race is an open contest following Ken Paxton’s decision to run for the U.S. Senate.
- GOP Polling Leaders: Congressman Chip Roy leads the Republican field with 33% support, followed by State Senator Mayes Middleton at 23%.
- Democratic Contest: State Senator Nathan Johnson (25%) and former Mayor Joe Jaworski (22%) are the frontrunners, though 40% of voters remain undecided.
- Key Issues: The Dallas debate focused on fraud prevention, public integrity, and state-federal legal tensions.
Republican candidates vying for the Texas Attorney General nomination clashed in a televised debate in Dallas on Tuesday, outlining their visions for the state’s top law enforcement office ahead of the March primary. The race has drawn significant attention following Attorney General Ken Paxton’s announcement that he would vacate the seat to run for the U.S. Senate, creating a rare statewide opening that has attracted competitive fields from both parties.
During the event at the Granada Theater on Greenville Avenue, four GOP contenders presented their priorities to voters. The debate served as a critical platform for the candidates to distinguish themselves on issues regarding fraud prevention, public integrity, and federal overreach. According to the candidates, the office requires aggressive enforcement, specifically regarding electoral integrity and alignment with federal statutes.
Recent polling data from the University of Houston indicates a lead for Central Texas Congressman Chip Roy, who holds 33% of support among likely Republican voters. State Senator Mayes Middleton follows with 23%, while State Senator Joan Huffman and former Assistant Attorney General Aaron Reitz stand at 13% and 6%, respectively. The data notably highlights that 25% of Republican voters remain undecided, leaving a significant portion of the electorate up for grabs as early voting approaches.
On the Democratic side, the primary remains fluid with 40% of voters currently unsure of their choice. State Senator Nathan Johnson leads the field with 25%, followed closely by former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski at 22%. Former FBI agent Tony Box currently polls at 13%. Political analysts suggest that the high volume of undecided voters in both primaries indicates that the final weeks of campaigning will be decisive.
Electoral Analysis
The departure of Ken Paxton to pursue a U.S. Senate seat has fundamentally altered the landscape of Texas state politics, converting what would have been an incumbency defense into a wide-open battle for political succession. The substantial number of undecided voters in both party primaries—25% for Republicans and 40% for Democrats—suggests that name recognition and late-stage advertising will likely determine the nominees. For the GOP, the focus on ‘public integrity’ and fraud enforcement signals a continued rightward shift in prosecutorial priorities, while the Democratic field is positioning itself to capitalize on the shifting suburban demographics of the state.
