Executive Summary
- Federal grand juries indicted under 50,000 defendants in FY 2024, the lowest number in nearly 30 years.
- Recent grand juries declined to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James and six Democratic members of Congress.
- Historical data shows declinations are extremely rare; only six occurred nationwide in FY 2016.
- Grand jury participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with 126,000 Americans serving in 2024.
Federal grand juries, the secret panels responsible for determining probable cause in federal felony cases, indicted fewer than 50,000 defendants in fiscal year 2024, marking the lowest volume in nearly three decades, according to data analyzed by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. This statistical decline coincides with recent high-profile instances where grand juries exercised their discretion to decline indictments in politically sensitive cases.
According to a report by the Pew Research Center, federal grand juries have recently drawn attention for declining to indict individuals sought for prosecution by President Trump’s administration. Specifically, two federal grand juries in Virginia reportedly declined to indict New York Attorney General Letitia James on charges related to mortgage fraud in late 2025. Similarly, grand juries declined to return indictments against six Democratic members of Congress, despite prosecutorial efforts.
The function of the grand jury differs fundamentally from that of a trial, or petit, jury. The Congressional Research Service describes the grand jury as both a "sword" to investigate crimes and a "shield" to protect citizens from unfounded prosecution. Operating in secrecy and in a non-adversarial setting, these bodies—comprised of 16 to 23 citizens—hear evidence presented solely by prosecutors. Unlike a trial jury, which must determine guilt beyond a reasonable doubt, a grand jury determines only if there is probable cause to believe a crime was committed.
Historical data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics indicates that a refusal to indict is statistically anomalous. In fiscal year 2016, for example, federal grand juries declined to indict only six individuals nationwide. This rarity led to the famous 1985 assertion by former New York Chief Judge Sol Wachtler that a prosecutor could persuade a grand jury to "indict a ham sandwich." However, the recent declinations in cases involving Attorney General James and others suggest that the "shield" function remains active in the federal judiciary.
Participation in these juries has also fluctuated. In fiscal year 2024, approximately 126,000 Americans served on federal grand juries, a figure that remains significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels. In fiscal year 2019, more than 167,000 citizens served. On average, grand juries in 2024 indicted nearly eight individuals per session.
Judicial Procedural Analysis
The recent trend of declining indictments in cases involving high-profile political figures, contrasted against the historical statistical probability of securing an indictment, highlights the autonomy of the grand jury system within the federal judiciary. While often viewed as a procedural formality for prosecutors, the grand jury serves as a constitutional checkpoint under the Fifth Amendment. The decline in total indictments to a 30-year low suggests a potential shift in prosecutorial prioritization or resource allocation within the Department of Justice, rather than solely a change in jury behavior. These metrics will likely be scrutinized by legal scholars to determine if the threshold for probable cause is being applied more rigorously in complex or politically charged investigations.
It is important to note that an indictment is a formal accusation based on probable cause, not a conviction. All individuals named in legal proceedings are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a court of law.
