The swift progression of Syrian rebels has caught international attention, as they edge closer to the capital, Damascus, overcoming government forces with surprising speed. This transformative phase in the prolonged Syrian conflict unfolds after what was a relatively stagnant period.
Officials from the U.S. administration contend with varied perspectives regarding Assad’s fate, stressing that an official conclusion has not been drawn. However, there is a growing consensus among some U.S. officials that Assad’s hold on power may be waning significantly. Statements from senior officials suggest that without a timely intervention or organized coup, Assad’s regime might soon disintegrate entirely.
The rebels’ rapid movements have unnerved the Biden administration, recalling past misjudgments in geopolitical assessments, such as the Afghanistan withdrawal and initial evaluations during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This context has shaped a cautious approach in processing current events in Syria.
A significant driver in the rebel advancement comes from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an entity the U.S. categorizes as a terrorist group with roots in al Qaeda. National security concerns linger over HTS’s intentions and potential future governance once Assad’s rule diminishes, yet there is some undeniable friction as the Assad regime, backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, faces increasing tactical pressures.
The momentum seen with HTS appears to exploit the distracted positions of Assad’s allies, notably with Russia consumed by the Ukraine crisis and Iran grappling with recent military setbacks. This strategic environment has allowed HTS to gain traction and advance towards Damascus.
The U.S. military maintains its positions within Syria, notably alongside the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, focusing efforts on ISIS threats. While connections between SDF and HTS are noted, the U.S. maintains no direct communication with HTS due to its terrorist designation.
Uncertainty abounds about Assad’s potential refuge should his regime collapse, with Moscow or Tehran possibly offering asylum. Despite this, looming concerns center on the security of Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal, notorious for its deployment against civilians during the conflict.
The rapidly evolving situation in Syria underscores the fragile nature of authoritarian regimes and the complexities surrounding international interventions and diplomatic strategies. As developments unfold, the world waits cautiously, assessing the potential geopolitical shifts and humanitarian implications.
Source: CNN
