The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released new data indicating the likelihood of snow on the ground this Christmas across various U.S. states.
According to NOAA, a ‘white Christmas’ requires at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25. The latest report draws on three decades of climate data, averaging observations such as precipitation, temperature, and snowfall from around 15,000 sites nationwide. These sites, primarily managed by NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS), provide a comprehensive overview of historical weather patterns on Christmas Day.
The NOAA data includes U.S. Climate Normals from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). This data allows for a predictive map, using colors to delineate the probability of snow cover on Christmas. Areas shaded in dark gray have less than a 10% chance, while those in white exceed a 90% probability, offering a visual guide to holiday snowfall expectations.
Despite the confidence instilled by historical data, the actual weather on Christmas will depend on the whims of nature. Unpredictable weather events, such as a snowstorm shortly before December 25, could lead to unexpected snowfall in typically snow-free areas. Historical instances, like North Texas experiencing a rare snowy Christmas in 2009, demonstrate these possibilities.
Conversely, areas traditionally expecting snow might not see any, as evidenced by Portland, Maine, in 2023. Warm weather in the region prevented snow from settling, turning the expected white Christmas into a rainy holiday instead.
While NOAA data provides a reliable estimate for snow on Christmas Day, nature’s unpredictability remains a key factor. Whether or not snow graces your region this holiday season, the NOAA report offers valuable insights into the likelihood of a white Christmas.
Source: Space
