HONG KONG – China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, with the number of deaths outpacing a slight increase in births, and experts cautioning that the downturn will worsen in the coming years.
The National Bureau of Statistics said the total number of people in China dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion in 2024, compared with 1.409 billion in 2023.
Friday’s data reinforces concerns that the world’s second largest economy will struggle as the number of workers and consumers declines. Rising costs from elderly care and retirement benefits are also likely to create additional strains for already indebted local governments.
China’s birth rates have been falling for decades as a result of the one-child policy China implemented from 1980 to 2015 as well as rapid urbanisation.
As in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, large numbers of Chinese people have moved from rural farms to cities, where having children is more expensive.
A 12.4% rise in marriages in 2023 – many delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic – meant there was a temporary rebound in births in 2024, demographers said. The number is expected to fall again in 2025.
