Five years have passed since the United Kingdom officially left the European Union on January 31, 2020. On that day, the mood was starkly divided around the British Parliament—some supporters of Brexit jubilantly waving Union Jacks, while others clung to EU flags in tears. The departure marked the end of nearly half a century of British integration within the EU, fostering free movement and trade with its member nations. The split has left the UK to chart its course as an independent nation amid varied economic and political repercussions.
The decision to leave the EU was rooted in a national referendum held in June 2016, amidst a backdrop of industrial decline, public spending cuts, and rising immigration. The vote yielded a narrow 52% majority favoring Brexit, a result that none had anticipated, least of all a government that had advocated for staying in the EU. This led to a fractious divorce overseen by a Parliament locked in stalemate, culminating in Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation and Boris Johnson’s ascent to ‘get Brexit done.’
The initial exit did not include a concrete economic plan with the EU, Britain’s principal trading partner. This uncertainty led to a protracted negotiation resulting in a last-minute trade agreement on Christmas Eve of 2020. The deal, while eliminating tariffs and quotas, introduced new administrative hurdles and costs resulting in notable effects on businesses. A London-based company, for instance, needed to establish an Irish base to maintain EU trade, a move termed necessary but burdensome by its owner.
Despite Johnson’s optimistic promises, Brexit’s economic outcomes have been mixed. Some businesses like Creative Nature have pivoted to non-EU markets to offset trade disruptions. Yet, there were substantial losses, with predictions from the Office of Budget Responsibility forecasting a significant downturn in long-term trade volumes and productivity due to Brexit. Nevertheless, proponents argue that new global trade deals could potentially offset these losses, although trade experts maintain the magnitude of change remains insufficient to cover the gap left by diminished EU trade.
In contrast, immigration patterns have defied Brexit expectations. The UK, once aiming to curb immigration, has witnessed an increase due to a rise in visas for global workers. This shift, coupled with global economic disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions from the Ukraine invasion, complicates the Brexit impact narrative, overshadowing its isolated effects on Britain’s economy and society.
Public sentiment towards Brexit has shifted, with many now seeing it as a misstep. Yet, the notion of rejoining the EU remains distant, its political and social scars still fresh. The current British government under Labour leader Keir Starmer seeks to mend ties with Brussels, although without major changes like returning to the customs union. His minimalistic approach aims to ease professional and cultural exchanges without rekindling past tensions. Still, as European counterparts grapple with populism, Britain’s place in their priorities has diminished.
The complexities of Brexit continue to unfold, revealing an array of unforeseen consequences and challenges that extend beyond the theoretical aspirations of its architects. The path to future relations with the EU remains cautious and gradual, with political leaders and businesses navigating this new landscape. While time may ease some divisions, the full ripple effects of Brexit will likely continue to emerge in the years to come.
