Poland is approaching a pivotal moment as the nation gears up for its Presidential elections, which are set to shape the country’s political future. Rafal Trzaskowski, representing Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, currently leads the polls with an average of 38.3% support. Trailing him is Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate backed by the incumbent President Andrzej Duda’s Law and Justice party. Earlier this year, Nawrocki briefly fell to third place, overtaken by far-right Konfederacja candidate Slawomir Mentzen, who has gained popularity among young voters, particularly on social media platforms like TikTok.
In a more distant position is Szymon Holownia, the Marshall of the Sejm, whose centrist Third Way coalition garnered 14.5% of the vote in the 2023 parliamentary elections, contributing to the current ruling coalition’s majority in parliament. Meanwhile, left-wing candidates Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg are polling at average rates of 2.7% and 1.8%, respectively.
This election is crucial for Poland’s current ruling coalition, which has struggled to implement reforms due to conservative resistance from President Andrzej Duda. With Duda ineligible for re-election as he serves his second term, the election results will significantly impact the coalition’s ability to address key national issues, including civil partnerships, abortion rights, migration, and national defense.
The last Presidential election saw a narrow victory for Duda over Trzaskowski, and many anticipated a similar contest this time. However, Mentzen’s growing support has introduced a new dynamic, making him a formidable contender against Nawrocki.
The first round of the Presidential elections is scheduled for May 18. Should no candidate achieve a majority of at least 50% of the votes, a second round will occur on June 1. The winner will serve a five-year term, with the opportunity to run for a second term. The President-elect will officially assume office in a joint session of the Sejm and the Senate on August 6.
