In Vatican City, an age-old saying suggests that entering a conclave as a pope often results in exiting as a cardinal. This highlights the sacred and highly secretive nature of the papal election, considered a divinely inspired process rather than a popularity contest. The election involves the cardinals of the church selecting the Vicar of Christ on Earth. Despite this, there are always front-runners, described as “papabile,” who are perceived as possessing the attributes necessary to become pope, resembling the candidates portrayed in the film “Conclave.”
Any baptized Catholic male is eligible to become pope, but traditionally, only cardinals have been chosen since 1378. To be elected, a candidate must secure at least two-thirds of the votes from cardinals under the age of 80, who are eligible to participate. With Pope Francis, who passed away on Monday, having appointed the majority of the electors, there appears to be an inclination for continuity in leadership, reflecting Francis’ pastoral values. As history has shown, such as when Jorge Mario Bergoglio was deemed too old at 76 in 2013, or when Karol Wojtyla was not a front-runner in the 1978 conclave, predicting the outcome is often challenging.
Some candidates in the current papal consideration include:
- Cardinal Peter Erdo: At 72, Erdo serves as the archbishop of Budapest and the primate of Hungary. His election as head of the Council of European Episcopal Conferences in 2005 and 2011 indicates support from European cardinals, a significant voting bloc. Erdo’s involvement in organizing key Vatican meetings and papal visits has expanded his influence.
- Cardinal Reinhard Marx: The 71-year-old archbishop of Munich and Freising has been a key adviser since 2013 and led Vatican financial reforms. His support for Germany’s “synodal path” process, however, has met with conservative skepticism, seeing it as a potential threat to church unity.
- Cardinal Marc Ouellet: Ouellet, 80, from Canada, headed the Vatican’s influential bishops office for over a decade. Despite his conservative leanings, he has also advocated for women to play a greater role in church governance.
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: As Francis’ secretary of state, 70-year-old Parolin is a prominent contender, having negotiated the Holy See’s deal with China and managed the Vatican’s bureaucracy, albeit lacking pastoral experience.
- Cardinal Robert Prevost: The American-born Prevost, 69, previously served in Peru and heads the dicastery for bishops, influencing global episcopal appointments. His youth and nationality may impact his chances.
- Cardinal Robert Sarah: The 79-year-old from Guinea, once considered a leading African candidate, faced setbacks after conflicts with Francis and controversial public positions on celibacy.
- Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn: At 80, the archbishop of Vienna has balanced conservative and progressive views, facing criticism for his stance on issues like civil unions and defending divorced Catholics.
- Cardinal Luis Tagle: The 67-year-old from the Philippines could be a potential first Asian pope, with significant pastoral and Vatican experience. His youth, however, might be seen as a drawback.
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: Known for his progressive approach and affiliation with the Sant’Egidio Community, Zuppi, 69, is aligned with Francis’ vision but might be considered too young for those seeking a shorter papacy.
As the conclave approaches, these candidates reflect the diversity and complexity of the Catholic Church’s leadership, each bringing unique qualities that could shape the future direction of the papacy.
