President Donald Trump has garnered more popularity in New Jersey, traditionally a Democratic bastion that saw a Republican shift in last year’s election, compared to President Joe Biden’s approval ratings from the previous spring, as reported by a recent poll. This development is significant as Trump’s approval ratings have experienced fluctuations due to growing discontent with his economic strategies, particularly tariffs, and his immigration policies. However, the gains made by Trump in New Jersey are encouraging Republicans to believe they might be competitive in the upcoming gubernatorial elections.
Historically, Democrats have secured New Jersey in recent presidential elections, with former President Joe Biden winning by 16 points in 2020. However, the margin was reduced in 2024 when Vice President Kamala Harris clinched the state by only six points, marking the Democrats’ weakest performance in New Jersey in decades.
As per the Emerson College poll, conducted from May 11 to May 13, 2025, involving 1,000 registered voters, New Jerseyans are nearly evenly divided regarding their approval of Trump’s performance, about four months into his second term. The poll results show 46.7% of respondents approving of Trump’s job performance against 47% disapproving, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll indicates a stronger approval rating for Trump compared to Biden’s nearly a year ago, when an Emerson College poll revealed only 40% approval for Biden, with 46.5% disapproval. This earlier poll signaled an alert for Democrats in New Jersey, showing Biden’s lead at roughly 6.3 points in the presidential race, narrowly higher than Harris’s final 5.9-point victory.
Furthermore, the poll highlighted that Trump’s popularity in New Jersey surpasses that of Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is limited to two terms. Governor Murphy received a 40.1% approval rating, while 44.7% disapproved of his performance. The upcoming gubernatorial race will be pivotal in determining whether Republicans can continue advancing in the state.
New Jersey has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, though its gubernatorial races have been more competitive, notably with Republican Chris Christie serving two terms from 2010 to 2018. The last Republican senator elected from New Jersey was in 1972.
Looking ahead, following the June 10 primary, New Jersey voters will participate in the general election on November 4. The Cook Political Report currently designates the race as leaning Democrat, indicating a competitive scenario with a Democratic advantage.
