Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
Nearly half of U.S. companies operating in Europe anticipate a decline in transatlantic economic relations, according to a recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU). While this sentiment remains significant, it marks a substantial improvement from an earlier period during President Trump’s administration, with the survey indicating a notable shift in expectations following a recent EU-U.S. trade agreement.
Survey Highlights Shifting Sentiments
The survey, conducted among 52 U.S.-controlled AmCham EU members between September 8 and 16, revealed that 46% of respondents expect a deterioration in EU-U.S. trade and investment ties. This figure represents a considerable decrease from 89% in a similar survey conducted in January, suggesting a more optimistic outlook among businesses.
Additionally, one-third of the companies surveyed now anticipate stability in economic relations, a shift attributed by some to the trade deal struck between the European Union and the United States at the end of July. AmCham EU, which boasts over 160 members including major corporations like Apple, Goldman Sachs, Meta Platforms, and Visa, underscored the cautious optimism.
Transatlantic Trade Deal and Remaining Concerns
The July trade agreement aims to remove most EU duties on U.S. goods, while the United States will impose 15% import tariffs on a majority of EU products. Despite some criticism from Brussels and various EU capitals, AmCham EU reported that companies viewed the deal positively.
Malte Lohan, CEO of AmCham EU, stated that businesses perceive the deal as having “averted unprecedented damage to transatlantic trade and investment.” However, he also acknowledged that “real concerns about the policy environment remain,” indicating that the agreement has not fully assuaged all anxieties.
Indeed, a majority of companies still foresee a negative impact from current policy frameworks. Specifically, 60% of respondents expect adverse effects from Washington’s policies, while 56% anticipate similar outcomes from Brussels’ policies.
Priorities for Future Economic Ties
The survey identified several key priorities for U.S. companies operating in Europe. Topping the list was the reduction of tariffs, a perennial concern for businesses engaged in cross-border trade.
Beyond tariffs, companies emphasized the critical need to address non-tariff barriers. These include complex regulatory challenges such as EU rules on deforestation and supply chain due diligence. Furthermore, respondents called for stronger cooperation and mutual recognition of standards between the two economic blocs to streamline operations and foster greater integration.
Outlook for U.S. Businesses in Europe
While the latest survey indicates a notable improvement in the outlook of U.S. companies operating in Europe regarding transatlantic economic relations, underlying concerns about policy impacts and persistent trade barriers continue to shape their expectations. The recent trade deal is seen as a positive step, yet the call for further action on tariffs and non-tariff obstacles highlights the ongoing challenges in fostering a fully robust and predictable economic environment.
