Economy

Can Australia and Japan Stop China? Rand Corp. Unveils US-Led Sanctions Plan for Taiwan

Rand Corp. suggests Australia and Japan join US to deter China‘s Taiwan action via pre-emptive sanctions.

November 10, 2025, 9:37 AM

Taiwanese soldiers and camouflaged military vehicles with mounted guns during a National Day parade.

Taiwanese soldiers with camouflaged vehicles participate in a military parade near the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall. By JENG BO YUAN / Shutterstock.com.

Executive Summary

The Rand Corporation suggests Australia and Japan could form the core of a potential U.S.-led pre-emptive sanctions coalition aimed at deterring China from military action against Taiwan.

Such large-scale economic restraints could be implemented three to six months before an anticipated conflict across the Taiwan Strait.

The report notes that sanctions alone are unlikely to deter China and should be integrated as a component of broader contingency planning.

The Story So Far

The discussion of a potential U.S.-led pre-emptive sanctions coalition against China stems from persistent geopolitical tensions and the threat of military action across the Taiwan Strait, where China’s ambition to unify Taiwan remains a significant concern. This strategy forms part of a broader U.S. and allied effort to deter conflict and maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, recognizing that effective economic measures require strong international cooperation from key partners like Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom.

Why This Matters

The Rand Corporation’s proposal signals a potential U.S. strategy shift towards pre-emptive economic deterrence against China, placing significant pressure on key allies like Australia and Japan to join a coalition that could initiate sanctions months before any military action against Taiwan. This approach, however, also acknowledges that sanctions alone are unlikely to deter Beijing, underscoring the necessity of integrating economic measures into a much broader, multi-faceted contingency plan.

Who Thinks What?

The Rand Corporation suggests that Australia and Japan could form the core of a potential U.S.-led pre-emptive sanctions coalition aimed at deterring Beijing from military action against Taiwan, with the United Kingdom also identified as a potential participant.

The Rand Corporation also notes that while key allies are essential for maximum effectiveness, sanctions alone are unlikely to deter China and should instead be integrated as a component of broader contingency planning.

An influential American think tank, the Rand Corporation, suggests that Australia and Japan could form the core of a potential U.S.-led pre-emptive sanctions coalition aimed at deterring Beijing from military action against Taiwan. The report posits that such large-scale economic restraints could be implemented if Washington anticipates a conflict across the Taiwan Strait within three to six months.

Report Details and Allied Strategy

The Rand Corporation, a prominent American research organization, detailed its findings in a report titled “Economic Deterrence in a China Contingency,” published recently. This study examines scenarios where the United States might impose economic measures preemptively against mainland China.

According to the researchers, for these economic measures to achieve “maximum effectiveness,” the involvement of key allies and partners would be essential. The report emphasizes the critical role of international cooperation in any large-scale economic deterrence strategy.

Key Potential Partners

The study identifies Canberra and Tokyo as “the most important” partners in the Pacific region for such a coalition. This assessment is based on their significant security interests in the Pacific and their close existing relationships with the United States.

Beyond the Pacific, the United Kingdom is also named as another potential participant in an expected coalition. The report cites London’s “historic relationship” with Washington and its long-standing status as a “global security leader” as reasons for its inclusion.

Effectiveness and Broader Planning

While advocating for economic tools, the Rand Corporation’s analysis also notes a crucial caveat. The report states that “sanctions alone are unlikely to deter” China from taking action against Taiwan.

Instead, the think tank suggests that economic measures should be integrated as a component of “broader contingency planning.” This approach indicates a recognition that a multifaceted strategy, combining various diplomatic and security tools, would be necessary.

Key Takeaways

The Rand Corporation’s analysis outlines a strategic framework for economic deterrence, emphasizing the critical role of allied cooperation in any pre-emptive measures against potential Chinese action on Taiwan. It highlights the potential for a U.S.-led coalition involving key partners like Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom, while also underscoring the need for economic tools to be part of a comprehensive, broader contingency plan.