Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
An opinion piece published on September 29, 2025, by Ashfaq Zaman argues that China is uniquely positioned to lead a commission for the phased repatriation of nearly one million Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh to Myanmar’s Rakhine state. The proposal follows a recent conference in Dhaka where Rohingya representatives emphasized their desire for a permanent return home rather than continued humanitarian aid. This approach, according to the author, aligns both humanitarian imperatives with China’s significant economic and strategic interests in the region.
The Protracted Crisis and Shifting Focus
The Rohingya crisis, described as one of the world’s most enduring humanitarian challenges, currently sees almost one million refugees residing in temporary camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar. Despite years of international aid, prospects for their safe and dignified return to Myanmar’s Rakhine state have remained minimal.
The conversation around the crisis has begun to shift, particularly after a recent funding collapse at the US Agency for International Development (USAID) reduced essential humanitarian support. This development, coupled with the Rohingya’s stated preference for repatriation over aid, highlights the urgent need for a political solution to prevent further regional instability.
China’s Strategic Stake in Rakhine
The opinion piece underscores China’s substantial economic and strategic investments in Rakhine state, which are integral to its Belt and Road Initiative. Key projects include the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and the accompanying oil and gas pipelines that traverse the region.
These infrastructure developments are designed to enhance China’s connectivity with the Indian Ocean, thereby reducing its reliance on the congested Malacca Strait. However, the long-term viability and success of these projects are directly dependent on the political stability and security within Rakhine state. Continued unrest and refugee outflows could significantly disrupt these critical initiatives.
A Path Forward
The author suggests that China’s diplomatic influence and vested economic interests make it an ideal candidate to oversee a repatriation plan. Such a plan would need to ensure the security, rights, and economic reintegration of the Rohingya, moving beyond the current aid-dependent stasis. By facilitating a permanent solution, China could not only address a pressing humanitarian crisis but also safeguard its strategic investments in Myanmar.
