Executive Summary
The Story So Far
Why This Matters
Who Thinks What?
China’s transport authorities are projecting approximately 2.4 billion journeys during the upcoming eight-day National Day “golden week” holiday, starting on Wednesday. This figure represents a 3.2 percent increase compared to the same period last year, with an average of 295 million travelers expected daily. The anticipated surge in domestic travel is poised to provide a significant boost to the nation’s consumer economy.
Holiday Travel Projections
Deputy transport minister Li Yang announced the projections on Sunday, detailing the scale of expected movement across the country. The “golden week” holiday, which begins on China’s National Day and extends into the following week to include the Mid-Autumn Festival, is recognized as one of China’s most important travel periods.
The forecasted 2.4 billion journeys mark a notable increase from the more than 2 billion journeys recorded during last year’s seven-day Golden Week. This continued growth in domestic mobility is seen as a positive indicator for consumer spending and economic activity.
Modes of Transport and Peak Days
Driving is expected to be the predominant mode of travel during the holiday, with Li anticipating 1.87 billion people, or nearly 80 percent of all travelers, to use personal vehicles. This highlights the increasing reliance on China’s extensive road network for inter-regional movement.
Wednesday, the first day of the holiday, is projected to be the busiest, with over 340 million journeys. This volume would exceed the peak travel day of this year’s Lunar New Year by one million journeys, underscoring the intensity of the initial holiday rush.
Context on Travel Statistics
Since the Lunar New Year in 2023, China’s “inter-regional” travel statistics have comprehensively included both road traffic and the use of public transport. This expanded methodology provides a more complete picture of the country’s overall travel patterns and mobility trends during major holidays.
Economic Implications
The robust travel forecasts for the National Day holiday underscore a resilient consumer base and potential for economic revitalization through domestic consumption. The concentrated spending on travel, accommodation, and leisure activities during this period is a key component of China’s internal economic dynamics.
