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Economy

EBRD Warns: US Tariffs, China’s Rise, and Ukraine’s War Threaten Economic Growth

EBRD: US tariffs, Chinese competition, Ukraine war, and African fiscal woes pressure economies.

byEditorial Staff

September 25, 2025, 9:03 AM

Executive Summary

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) identified US tariffs and intensifying Chinese competition on exports as significant pressures on economies in its operational regions.

Ukraine’s economy continues to face profound disruption and uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict.

Several nations in sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing considerable fiscal difficulties, including high debt levels and limited government revenues.

The Story So Far

The economies in the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s operational regions are facing significant pressures due to a confluence of factors, including the impact of US tariffs, intensifying competition from China on exports, the ongoing disruption caused by Ukraine’s wartime economy, and considerable fiscal difficulties in several sub-Saharan African nations.

Why This Matters

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s latest projections indicate that economies in its operational regions face significant headwinds from external pressures, including US tariffs and intensifying Chinese export competition, which are constraining trade and growth opportunities. Internally, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to cause widespread disruption and uncertainty, while fiscal troubles in sub-Saharan Africa hinder development and the provision of essential public services, collectively pointing to a complex and challenging economic outlook.

Who Thinks What?

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) believes that economies within its operational regions are facing significant pressures from a range of challenges.

The EBRD specifically identifies US tariffs, intensifying Chinese competition on exports, the ongoing wartime economy in Ukraine, and fiscal difficulties in sub-Saharan African countries as key economic headwinds.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released its latest growth projections this Thursday, highlighting significant pressures on the economies within its operational regions. The development bank identified a range of challenges, including the impact of US tariffs, intensifying Chinese competition on exports, the ongoing wartime economy in Ukraine, and fiscal difficulties faced by countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Key Economic Headwinds

According to the EBRD’s assessment, several factors are contributing to an challenging economic environment. The imposition of US tariffs is cited as a significant external pressure point, affecting trade dynamics and market access for goods produced in these regions.

Furthermore, the report points to intensifying competition from China, which is particularly impacting the export sectors of countries where the EBRD operates. This heightened competition can constrain growth opportunities and put downward pressure on local industries.

Regional Challenges

Beyond global trade dynamics, specific regional issues are also weighing on economic performance. Ukraine’s economy continues to grapple with the profound effects of the ongoing conflict, leading to widespread disruption and uncertainty.

Additionally, several nations in sub-Saharan Africa are facing considerable fiscal troubles. These challenges often include high debt levels, limited government revenues, and difficulties in financing essential public services and development projects.

Outlook Summary

The EBRD’s chief economist, Beata Javorcik, discussed these findings, underscoring the multifaceted nature of the economic headwinds. The report collectively indicates that economies across the EBRD’s operational footprint are contending with a complex mix of external trade policy impacts, competitive market forces, and internal fiscal and geopolitical strains.