Economy

EU Sanctions on Russian Oil: Will US Pressure Force China and India to Comply?

EU considers sanctions on Indian/Chinese firms aiding Russia oil trade, facing internal resistance.

byAndres Castro

September 16, 2025, 8:37 AM

An oil refinery in a snowy landscape with smoke stacks and a burning flare

An oil refinery complex with its industrial buildings and pipes covered in snow and ice during winter. By MDL.

Executive Summary

The European Union is deliberating its 19th sanctions package against Russia, potentially targeting Indian and Chinese companies accused of facilitating Russia’s oil trade, alongside Russian banks, energy companies, and payment systems.

President Donald Trump is pressing for “major” sanctions on Russian oil, proposing up to 100% tariffs on China and India for their role in the trade, contingent on European nations adopting similar measures.

The EU faces significant internal resistance to further sanctions from member states like Hungary and Slovakia, who express concerns over the economic implications and costs of securing alternative oil supplies.

The Story So Far

The ongoing discussions around new sanctions packages are a direct response to Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine, with its energy revenues being a crucial source of funding for its military actions. This situation is compounded by President Donald Trump’s pressure on European nations to join the US in implementing “major” sanctions on Russian oil, potentially targeting buyers from China and India. However, the European Union faces significant internal resistance from member states like Hungary and Slovakia, who express concerns over the economic implications and costs of securing alternative oil supplies, complicating efforts to present a unified front.

Why This Matters

The European Union’s deliberation on its 19th sanctions package, coupled with President Trump’s push for “major” sanctions on Russian oil—potentially including tariffs on Indian and Chinese companies—significantly escalates economic pressure on Moscow. This effort, however, risks exacerbating internal EU divisions due to member states like Hungary and Slovakia’s concerns over economic costs and alternative supply, while also potentially disrupting global oil markets and supply chains by broadening the scope of sanctions to include major trading partners.

Who Thinks What?

President Donald Trump advocates for “major” sanctions on Russian oil, including tariffs of up to 100% on buyers from China and India, to significantly diminish Moscow’s energy revenues.

The European Union is deliberating its 19th sanctions package, which includes considering punitive measures against Indian and Chinese companies accused of facilitating Russia’s oil trade, aiming to further restrict Russia’s energy trade.

Hungary and Slovakia, EU member states, express resistance to further sanctions due to concerns over the economic implications and costs associated with securing alternative oil supplies.

The European Union is currently deliberating its 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes considering punitive measures against Indian and Chinese companies accused of facilitating Russia’s oil trade. This move comes as President Donald Trump, asserting his readiness to implement “major” sanctions on Russian oil, pressures European nations to join a concerted effort aimed at crippling Moscow’s energy revenues, a crucial source of funding for its war in Ukraine. However, the EU faces significant internal resistance from member states such as Hungary and Slovakia, who express concerns over the economic implications and costs of securing alternative oil supplies.

US Pressure and Proposed Measures

President Trump has indicated he is prepared to advance with substantial sanctions on Russian oil, contingent on European nations adopting similar measures. These proposed penalties would target the energy trade that is vital for financing President Vladimir Putin’s military actions in Ukraine, specifically focusing on buyers from China and India.

The US proposal, shared with Group of Seven members, reportedly suggests tariffs of up to 100% on China and India. It would also target Russian oil companies and the intricate networks that enable Moscow to transport crude oil and profit from its trade.

EU’s 19th Sanctions Package

The EU’s ongoing deliberations for its 19th sanctions package against Russia are comprehensive. The package could potentially target approximately half a dozen Russian banks and energy companies, alongside Russia’s payment and credit card systems, and various crypto exchanges. Further restrictions on the country’s oil trade are also under consideration.

Following the implementation of sanctions in 2022, crude oil imports from Moscow to the EU significantly declined, dropping from 27% of total EU imports before the conflict to around 3% last year. The current US push places additional pressure on Europe, which had previously delayed phasing out Russian gas until after 2027 and granted temporary exemptions from its Russian oil sanctions to landlocked countries like Hungary and Slovakia.

Internal EU Hurdles

A primary challenge for the EU is overcoming resistance from certain member states, particularly Hungary and Slovakia. These nations have consistently voiced concerns regarding the financial burden and logistical complexities associated with transitioning to alternative oil supplies.

The EU will need to explore various mechanisms to address these concerns, especially as the temporary exemption for these nations approaches its end. Such measures would aim to mitigate the economic impact on these member states while maintaining a unified front against Russia’s energy trade.

Outlook

The European Union is navigating a complex geopolitical and economic landscape as it considers its next steps in sanctioning Russia. The interplay between US demands, the economic sensitivities of its own member states, and the overarching goal of diminishing Russia’s war funding presents a multifaceted challenge for the bloc’s economic policy.